Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) (603628)
Australian PV support faucet
The company takes the sales of photovoltaic supports as the main direction, positioning medium and high-end customers and markets. Since its establishment in 2007, the company has developed markets in Australia, Japan, China, Europe and Southeast Asia. The company has a market share of more than 50% in Australia, which has been the first in Australia's roof photovoltaic market share for 11 consecutive years. In the first half of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 520 million yuan (YoY + 40.0%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 35 million yuan (YoY + 24.7%); among them, the revenue of photovoltaic support business was 450 million yuan (YoY + 63.6%), accounting for 86%. The company's main business revenue was mainly overseas, and the company's overseas revenue was 580 million yuan in 2020, accounting for 65%.
At present, the company's main business can be divided into three parts: photovoltaic support and tracker production and sales (including distributed support, ground fixation and tracking), EPC project and operation and maintenance, and photovoltaic power plant investment (self-supporting or entrusted Development). Among them, the user support business in China's EPC project and photovoltaic support is expected to become the company's future growth engine.
The whole county promotes household development and helps the company open the Chinese market
Household photovoltaic is in the ascendant, and policy assistance continues to increase. In June 2021, The National Energy Administration issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme for roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district) , promote the pilot county wide distributed photovoltaic projects nationwide. With the gradual implementation of projects promoted by the whole county, the demand for household and distributed photovoltaic is gradually increasing. From January to October 2021, 13.6gw of household installed capacity was added, of which the household installed capacity in October accounted for 51.5% of the total PV installed capacity. It is estimated that in 2022, the newly installed capacity of PV in China will be 60-75gw, the household installed capacity demand will be 30GW, and the corresponding market space of household PV support will be 6 billion yuan.
With rich experience in sales management of household stents, the cost is controllable under the scale effect. The company has always been the leader of household photovoltaic support in the Australian market, and has very rich experience in household photovoltaic power station solutions, channel operation management and after-sales service. Since last year, the company has seized the opportunity and began to vigorously develop China's household market. It is expected that the shipment is expected to break out next year. The company's household sales model in China is divided into self-development and agent system. The latter establishes a strategic cooperative relationship with the contractor, and the monthly shipment is relatively stable. The company controls the time point of raw material procurement by controlling goods preparation in advance, so as to reduce costs and improve the profitability of the company.
Joint venture helps EPC business development
In November 2021, the company established Xiamen Jianfa Qingyuan new energy Co., Ltd. through joint investment with Xiamen Jianfa, forming a cooperative development mode of SASAC enterprises + photovoltaic enterprises. Relying on the resources around Xiamen, the company is expected to develop the existing county resources into a model city of Xiamen, so as to radiate Fujian Province and open up the market space of EPC business in the future.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company's EPC business and the development of household supports in the Chinese market next year. Considering the exchange rate fluctuation this year, it is expected that the financial expenses will increase slightly, which will have a slight impact on the company's profits. It is predicted that the revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 990 million, RMB 1.92 billion and RMB 2.62 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.18, 0.39 and 0.53 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 81, 37 and 28 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk statement
The price of photovoltaic modules is too high, the promotion and landing of the whole county does not meet expectations, changes in international relations, etc.
