Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754)
The hotel industry is under pressure, and the leading enterprises enjoy the market clearing dividend. In 2020, the covid-19 epidemic hit the tourism industry hard, the number of tourists nationwide decreased by about 50%, and the hotel industry was seriously affected. By the third quarter of 2021, the tourism industry will recover by about 70%. The fact that covid-19 epidemic is difficult to completely end in a short time has accelerated the market clearing of the hotel market. As a leading enterprise in China's hotel industry, the company will enjoy the advantages of high risk resistance possessed by the head enterprise under the impact of this epidemic.
The company actively deploys the asset light strategy to fully cope with environmental impact. The company gives full play to its brand advantages and actively expands the scale of franchise hotels; Facing the impact of the epidemic, the company actively carried out the stripping of heavy assets. Since 2020, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) has repeatedly transferred its self operated hotel assets such as Jinjiang Star and fashion tour to Jinjiang capital with similar REITs, and continued to operate in the form of entrusted management after the transfer.
Get rid of the third-party OTA and build your own wehotel to assist in customer traffic acquisition. In order to get rid of the erosion of profits caused by the high commission of the third-party OTA, the company built its own wehotel platform based on its huge business scale. Based on the sharing economy model of mobile Internet, the company uses the platform to integrate the group's resources and improve the energy level, and promote the docking of China International Hotel system, which effectively improves the operation efficiency and reduces the service cost.
Profit forecast: the core of performance prediction of hotel enterprises in the current environment is the degree of epidemic control and the resulting industry recovery. Combined with the variation ability of the virus and the non synchronization of epidemic prevention and control policies and measures of various countries, the global epidemic will continue to spread in the next 2-3 years, and China will continue to face the pressure caused by imported cases from abroad. Therefore, the hotel industry will have a re growth process only after the existing recovery process is completed. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, China's tourism industry in 2021 (tourist arrivals) only recovered to about 70% in 2019 in the first three quarters. According to the third quarterly report disclosed by the company, the company realized an operating revenue of RMB 8.349 billion in the first three quarters, which recovered to about 74% in 2019. The opportunity of virus transmission increased in winter, and the pressure of epidemic prevention and control only increased. Referring to the negative net profit of the company in the fourth quarter of 2020, we estimate that the performance of the hotel industry in 2021 will only increase It can recover to about 70% in 2019 and 90% and 110% before the epidemic in 2022 and 2023.
Risk tips: 1 Covid-19 variant caused the epidemic prevention effect to be less than expected. 2. Further tightening of China's tourism policy.
