Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (002991)
Investment suggestion: Ganyuan is a typical product driven company. Whether it is to build the classic old three kinds of green beans, broad beans and melon seed kernel, become the head brand of seed nuts, or stand out in individual categories of taste nuts, it has proved its advantages in product end and taste development. The product force promotes the channel, and the company is expected to achieve considerable development. Looking forward to next year, under the new three kinds of upgrading and the large volume of new products in Anyang factory, the revenue side is expected to grow rapidly, the superposition of price increase dividends and the downward space of raw material prices are large, and the profit side is expected to be more flexible. We expect the company's EPS to be 1.49, 2.52 and 3.69 yuan in 21-23 years, giving a "buy" rating.
The products go in two lines, and it is expected to usher in centralized and large-scale production next year. At present, the company performs well in individual categories, which verifies the product power of the company's taste nuts. The company has a deep accumulation in taste R & D. at present, China's taste nuts are in the ascendant stage, especially for innovative flavors. The company is expected to continue to expand its market share by virtue of its first mover advantage in the supply chain. With the continuous launch of new products in Anyang factory and the improvement of product matrix, the old three sample end is expected to improve its attractiveness and stickiness to dealers. In the past, the problem of low customer quality of dealers is expected to be marginally improved, and the expansion and sinking of channels are expected to accelerate, which is expected to drive the large volume of old products and new products in channels. At the same time, the proportion of the company's quantitatively loaded products is relatively high, which is suitable for entering convenience stores, fruit stores and other channels, and is expected to reduce the impact of channel reform on the company.
The cost side has large downward space, superimposed with price increase dividends, and the profit is expected to be more flexible. The company's performance this year is dragged down by the rise in the price of raw materials. The prices of raw materials such as palm oil and packaging materials are currently at a high level. With the gradual recovery of the epidemic, there is a lot of room for the decline of raw material prices. Secondly, the company raised the price this year. However, due to the challenges faced by the channel environment this year, the company did not realize the channel price increase until the end of Q3. It is expected to enjoy the price increase bonus next year and create a safety cushion for the price increase of raw materials. On the expense side, the company currently has a small volume, and the advertising side is expected to be more pragmatic. On the whole, the profit growth next year is expected to be more flexible.
The share repurchase plan is used for equity incentive, and the management is expected to improve marginally. At present, the company has repurchased nearly 60 million yuan of shares, which is expected to be used for employee incentive in the future, which is expected to further improve the enthusiasm of channel personnel. Secondly, the company introduced a number of industry veterans to serve as regional managers this year, and the channel power is expected to improve marginally.
Stock price catalyst: new category sales exceeded expectations and channel development exceeded expectations.
Risk factors: price fluctuation risk of raw materials, intensified competition in flavor nut industry, and further decline in business Superman traffic.
