Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786)
"One body, two wings, global layout" drives the company's great leap forward development. The company has actively laid out the development strategy of "one body, two wings and global layout". At present, it has formed a comprehensive business development model with gypsum board as the main body and supporting keel and other products, and extended to the field of waterproof and coating. At present, the company's gypsum board and keel business is developing steadily, and the proportion of the contribution of waterproof business and coating business to the company's operating revenue is gradually increasing. We believe that the company's future performance is expected to achieve leapfrog development.
The gypsum board business has developed steadily and there is still a large room for growth. In terms of production capacity, the company continues to promote the global gypsum board production capacity layout. The production capacity has been 2.824 billion square meters, accounting for about 60% of the total gypsum board production capacity in China, and plans to expand the global gypsum board production capacity to about 5 billion square meters. In terms of cost, the company has fully used industrial by-product gypsum to produce gypsum board for building materials, with significant cost and technical advantages. We believe that there is still much room for improvement in the penetration rate of gypsum board in China's partition field and residential field. At the same time, in the future, under the background of building renovation, prefabricated building promotion and stock demand, the demand will rise steadily.
M & A of high-quality companies in the industry, breakthroughs have been made in the waterproof field, the coating sector has begun to make efforts, and the two wing businesses have been continuously improved. The waterproof and coating industries are in a period of rapid growth, and the industry is developing rapidly, but the market concentration is not high and the homogeneous competition is serious. Since 2019, the company has acquired many waterproof enterprises such as Yuwang, Shuyang, golden thumb, Shanghai Tai'an, Suzhou waterproof Institute, Tianjin Aotai and Chengdu Saite, and completed the layout of more than 10 production bases in three regions. At present, the company has many brands such as Yuwang, golden thumb, Shuyang and Yuehuang, with the market share rising to 3.02%, ranking third in the industry. The paint field has begun to make efforts to acquire 49% equity of Tianjin lighthouse, which is expected to make a rapid breakthrough and show synergy.
Profit forecast and investment rating. Based on the volume and price factors of various businesses of the company, we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 3.724 billion, RMB 4.517 billion and RMB 5.566 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.2, RMB 2.67 and RMB 3.29 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14.23x, 11.73x and 9.52x respectively. We select Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and other four enterprises as comparable companies, The average PE corresponding to the performance of comparable companies in 2021 is 20.3x. We believe that there is some room for improvement in the performance valuation of the company, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tip: gypsum board demand is less than expected; The capacity expansion rate of waterproof materials is lower than expected; Deterioration of competition pattern in waterproof industry; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The M & a process is not as expected; Uncertainty in the implementation process of the company's strategic planning; The company is not fully comparable with Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and other comparable companies, nor is China's gypsum board market fully comparable with the United States and Japan. The relevant data are for reference only.
