Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
The new fiscal year started well as scheduled, and the reservoir ensured the annual performance
The company’s 2021q1-q3 revenue was 3.423 billion yuan, an increase of 76% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1 billion yuan, an increase of 99% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.018 billion, an increase of 106% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q3 was 1.586 billion yuan, an increase of 39% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, an increase of 56% at the same time; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 628 million, an increase of 58% at the same time, the new fiscal year ushered in a good start as scheduled. At the end of 2021q1-q3, the contract liabilities were 871 million yuan, the reservoir was obvious, and there was no worry about the annual performance. The company’s business objective in 2021: strive to achieve the growth of main business by about 43% and net profit by about 35%.
High growth of secondary high-end and above, and the momentum of the top eight markets is strong
The company’s 2021q1-q3 revenue was 3.42 billion yuan, an increase of 76% at the same time; Among them, the revenue of high-end wine was 3.341 billion yuan, an increase of 76% at the same time; In terms of product segments, the revenue of 2021q1-q3 No. 8 + well platform increased by 78%, Collection (2021 version) + jingcui’s revenue increased by 58% at the same time, and the growth momentum of its main products was strong. From a subregional perspective, the revenue of the eight core markets of 2021q1-q3 increased by 84% at the same time, and the revenue of other markets increased by 64%. The new fiscal year started well. In November, the company adjusted the price of the collection master version. The group purchase price of the 52 degree 500ml full container of the collection master version increased by 50 yuan / bottle, the retail price increased by 200 yuan / bottle, and the collection master version increased by 38 degree 50 The group purchase price of 0ml full container is increased by 40 yuan / bottle, the retail price is increased by 100 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price of 52 degree new products is increased to 1399 yuan, further strengthening the determination of the collection to enter high-end wine. By the end of November, the company had repurchased 992400 shares, accounting for 0.2% of the total shares. It is expected that the company will implement equity incentive as soon as possible.
It is expected that the effect will appear early next year
In July 2021, the company promoted 25 distributors in 24 provinces to set up high-end Baijiu Sales Co., Ltd., general manager Chen, general manager of the distributor, luo general chairman, and formed the fate community with dealers, accelerating the national channel construction, promoting the high-end strategy to effectively landing in various regions, focusing on the collection and above products, and upgrading the collection. At present, when the high-end liquor business division is in progress, it is expected to have obvious results in one year.
The company continues to implement the high-end strategy, focusing on two aspects: first, marketing: the company continues to cultivate eight core markets and further promote regional differentiated marketing; Optimize the distribution of dealers, develop group buying dealers, invest customized resources, promote the activities of famous enterprises and banks, and promote the growth of group buying business; Continue to implement the digital strategy and seek breakthroughs in e-commerce business. Second, in terms of brand building, the company sponsored the national treasure and tennis tour to help the high-end brand; Deeply participate in the national sugar and wine fair and successfully create a brand home atmosphere; We will deepen the innovation and reform of digital marketing and strengthen market communication coverage.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company’s continued development of high-end brand, focusing on the master of collection, focusing on the top eight core markets, and building one of the top brands of Luzhou Baijiu liquor. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.54/3.34/4.13 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 51 / 38 / 31 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, the operation of collection masters is less than expected, and the performance of the top eight markets is less than expected.
