Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) (601016)
A-share veteran wind power operator, with “both volume and price rising” under the dual carbon background: the company is the only wind power operation platform under China energy conservation and environmental protection group and one of the earliest enterprises engaged in wind power operation in China. By the end of 2020, the company had achieved an installed capacity of 4.01gw, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, including equity installed capacity of 3.77gw and grid connected installed capacity of 3.16gw. As of the third quarter of this year, the company’s cumulative installed capacity has reached 4.94gw, including equity installed capacity of 4.65gw and grid connected installed capacity of 4.02gw. The installed capacity has increased significantly compared with the end of last year. Under the dual carbon background, the growth rate of the company’s installed capacity is expected to further expand. At the same time, due to the strong green power demand of downstream enterprises (especially high energy consuming industries), the company’s new parity projects are expected to obtain a premium through green power trading, and the trend of “both volume and price” is obvious.
Taking “construction in progress” as the measurement index, the company has strong certainty of short-term installed capacity growth: in the long run, the state and most new energy operating enterprises have issued the “14th five year plan” new energy installed capacity development plan, but in the short term, we believe that the construction in progress is an effective index that can reflect the realizability of the company’s short-term target installed capacity. According to the announcement of the company, the projects under construction reported by the company as of the end of 2021 and 2021 were 8.45 billion yuan and 10.03 billion yuan respectively, all of which are wind power projects under construction. According to our preliminary statistics, among A-share listed companies, Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) new energy projects under construction are second only to China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) and Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) . At the same time, according to the announcement of the company, the installed capacity under construction at the end of 2021 and the mid-term report of 2021 are 2.32 million KW and 1.935 million KW respectively, of which 300000 kW is installed for Yangjiang NANPENG Island offshore wind power project, and the rest is installed for onshore wind power. According to the announcement, the company’s offshore wind power projects have been connected to the grid at the end of November. In terms of onshore wind power, referring to the construction cycle of onshore wind power projects, it is expected that the projects under construction are expected to be connected to the grid this year and next. At the same time, the company’s net cash flow from investment activities increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 219% in 2020. From the construction in progress and investment, the company’s short-term installed capacity and performance are expected to usher in rapid growth with strong certainty.
As an old wind power operator, it is expected to give priority to benefiting from “replacing small with large”: the national energy administration has recently issued the management measures for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms, encouraging the transformation and decommissioning of wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years. Projects that have been operating for less than 20 years and whose cumulative power generation does not exceed the subsidized power in the whole life cycle before transformation can continue to enjoy subsidies. Early wind power projects have better resources, However, due to the small capacity of the original single unit (mainly units within 1.5MW), long maintenance time, low utilization hours and low operation efficiency of the project, the old fans “replace the small with the large” After the transformation, it will continue to benefit from high-quality wind resources, is expected to usher in the double growth of installed capacity and utilization hours, and the operation efficiency is expected to be greatly improved. According to our statistics, the installed capacity of wind power put into operation by the company in 2011 and before reached 1046000 kW, accounting for 21.2% of the current total installed capacity. If all units put into operation before 2010 during the “14th five year plan” period are replaced, the transformation project is expected to greatly improve the performance.
With the trend of expanding to non power limited areas, the wind abandonment rate is expected to continue to decline, and the proportion of electricity discount in the market is expected to narrow under the background of power reform. As the company’s stock projects are mainly located in areas with abundant wind resources such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Hebei and Mengxi, but the wind abandonment and power limitation are serious, the wind abandonment rates of Xinjiang, Gansu and Mengxi in 2020 are 10.3%, 6.4% and 7% respectively. Since the company’s power generation in the above four provinces accounts for 80% of the total power generation in 2020, the wind abandonment rate of the company in 2020 will reach 6.52%, which is still higher than the national average of 3%, although it has decreased significantly compared with the previous two years. We believe that in the future, with 1) the installed capacity in non power limited areas in the South will be put into operation successively: by the end of 2020, the company has 1.37 million kw of projects under construction and 729500 kW of approved and reserved projects in non power limited areas such as Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Zhejiang; 2) UHV transmission lines and energy storage are further spread, and the wind rejection rate of the company is expected to further decrease, so as to improve its power generation efficiency. Meanwhile, Xinjiang, Gansu, Hebei and Mengxi have a high proportion of market-oriented electricity and a large discount range. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s market-oriented electricity proportion is 44.2%. The market-oriented electricity price of coal power is expected to rise significantly in 2022, which is conducive to the narrowing of the company’s market-oriented electricity discount.
Investment suggestion: since 2020, the company’s cash flow from investment activities and projects under construction have increased significantly, with strong certainty of short-term performance growth. The company’s installed capacity is expected to increase significantly in the next two years, driving the improvement of performance. We expect that the revenue growth of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 32.7%, 42.6% and 18.2% respectively, and the net profit growth will be 57.9%, 42.1% and 20.8% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 7.90 yuan.
Risk tips: policy promotion is less than expected, project progress is less than expected, and power demand is less than expected
