Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
event
On December 18, the company held the 25th Conference on joint consultation, co construction and sharing, summarized the work achievements in 21 years and defined the work direction in 22 years.
Business analysis
21 years ended smoothly and laid the foundation for the beginning of the 14th five year plan. In the past 21 years, we have made steady progress, achieved high-quality market share improvement, and achieved good results in sales revenue, market share and product dynamic sales. In the past 21 years, the company's product structure has been continuously optimized, the price of five ordinary Wines has steadily increased, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has been successfully introduced into the market, all commemorative wine products have appeared, the 4 + 4 brands of series wines have been optimized and upgraded, and the new versions of wuliangchun, Jianzhuang 1911 and other products have been successfully launched.
In the past 22 years, we have made steady progress and adhered to the balance between supply and demand. In the past 22 years, the company has adhered to the promotion of high-quality market share as the core, accelerated the construction of a new manufacturer relationship of symbiosis and common prosperity, highlighted cultural construction and consumer cultivation, strengthened channel transformation, strengthened market expectations, and ensured the full realization of new development with steady progress. The key tasks of marketing work in the past 22 years are as follows: 1) adhere to the simultaneous development of culture and service, plan to build 10 cultural experience halls and put them into use, optimize the assessment method of cost investment, and set up quantitative assessment objectives for consumption cultivation. 2) Adhere to the balance between supply and demand and continuously improve Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) market position. In the 21st year, there are weak items that the profitability of businesses is lower than expected. In the 22nd five year plan, we will continue to optimize the allocation of the plan, expand group purchase channels, stabilize the traditional advantageous market, and make overall plans and policy support for highland market and key markets; Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will continue to strengthen consumer cultivation, optimize and improve the 1 + N + 2 channel model, and take the lead in listing classic 30 in Beijing and Shanghai. 3) Adhere to the combination of personality and fashion, enrich the cultural customized product system, and expand the market cost of low alcohol wine promotion. 4) Insist on paying equal attention to scale and value, continue to promote the upgrading of a series of wines, and create a large single product of 1 billion, 2 billion, 3 billion and 5 billion. 5) Adhere to sharing and co construction, continue to build a community of common destiny, and accelerate the transformation from a management type to an enabling and service-oriented team.
The short-term pace is stable, and the medium and long-term moat is still stable. Channel feedback, In the past 22 years, the comprehensive pricing price of puwu has been raised to 969 (about 920 + in 21 years). At present, the channel inventory is reasonable, and the rated price has rebounded to 980. In the future, the strategy of cost increase + volume price balance is expected to boost the rated price upward. We believe that puwu has outstanding advantages in the 1000 yuan price belt, and the current balance between supply and demand and steady progress will ensure the benign value chain, leading brand strength and escort the medium and long-term development. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) It has space occupying significance. Consumers give good feedback after drinking. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of subsequent demand cultivation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company's revenue growth rate to be 16% / 17% / 15%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company to be 18% / 20% / 18%, EPS to be 6.09/7.28/8.59 yuan, corresponding PE to be 39 / 32 / 27x. The valuation has cost performance and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, intensified regional market competition and food safety problems.
