Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) (300428)
Event: on December 18, Weilai released its new model et5, which was sold from 328000, with a long range of 1000 km. It is worth noting that the et5 accelerates from zero to 100 km for 4.3 seconds and adopts Wei Ziyan's four piston aluminum alloy integrated cast caliper. It involves a cost reduction magic weapon - integrated die casting, which was first adopted by Tesla in model y in 2020. In addition, six Chinese auto companies have planned to use similar casting equipment to produce their own models, according to the science and Innovation Board daily. Among China's car making forces, Xiaopeng will also introduce die-casting technology.
Cost reduction sharp tool, integrated die casting. Musk said at the Tesla battery day press conference on September 22, 2020 that the integrated die casting of model y can reduce the weight of the lower body assembly by 30% and the manufacturing cost by 40%. The traditional automobile rear floor structure is welded by about 70 stamped steel plates. Tesla uses the 6000 ton die casting machine Giga press to integrate the above 70 parts into 1-2 large aluminum castings, so that the weight of parts can be reduced by 10% - 20%, the number of connection points can be reduced from 700-800 to 50, and the manufacturing time can be shortened from 1-2 hours to 3-5 minutes, Greatly simplify the manufacturing process and improve the production efficiency. Compared with the "stamping + welding" process of traditional body manufacturing, integrated die casting has the advantages of lightweight, reduced number of parts and process steps, personnel and land saving, which can greatly save the cost of car making.
New energy vehicles have a strong desire for lightweight. Compared with fuel vehicles, electric vehicles are subject to mileage anxiety and high battery material cost, and have a strong desire for lightweight. Taking Tesla as an example, in the next step, the whole lower body assembly composed of 370 parts will be replaced with 2-3 large die castings, the weight will be further reduced by 10%, and the corresponding mileage can be increased by 14%. Taking the 80kwh battery capacity of ordinary electric vehicles as an example, if the integrated die-casting body is used to reduce weight and keep the range unchanged, the battery capacity can be reduced by about 10kwh. Based on the current lithium iron phosphate battery pack cost of 0.7 yuan / wh, the single vehicle cost can be reduced by 7000 yuan. According to the annual output of 25 million units in 2025, the cost can be reduced by 175 billion yuan a year.
The corresponding material of integrated die casting - heat-free aluminum alloy. In addition to the process and equipment, the key to the realization of integrated die casting is the material - heat-free aluminum alloy. At present, this kind of alloy is mainly produced by overseas enterprises, such as Alcoa and rheinfeld, Germany. Only Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) has been developed in China, which has applied for a patent and formed a batch supply. In the modern industrial system, the breakthrough of material technology is by no means overnight. The development of new materials takes at least 5-10 years, or even longer.
After ten years, Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) has successfully developed high strength and high toughness heat-free aluminum alloy. With the wave of lightweight, cost reduction and speed-up of new energy vehicles, we expect that the heat-free aluminum alloy business is expected to make a rapid breakthrough and improve the company's performance and valuation. After the performance disturbance episode in the third quarter, the company will return to the track of rapid performance growth. The business of recycled aluminum alloy and master alloy has entered a period of accelerated growth, and the fluorine chemical project has added more increment in the later stage. We maintain the "buy" rating of the company and give a target price of 37.2 yuan.
Market and profit estimation of heat-free alloy: according to 2030, there will be 50 million new energy vehicles in the world, and the penetration of integrated die-casting single vehicle will be 300 kg. According to comprehensive estimation, the overall output value of the industry will be 300 billion and the profit will be 25 billion.
Risk tip: the progress of integrated die casting is not as expected; Industry policy changes
