Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) (605128)
Core recommendation logic
The new fixed point continues to break through, and the car seat frame can be increased. The company is the independent leader of automobile seat frame, accounting for 6% of China's market, and the strategy is bound to lear system. At the industry level, the scale of China's automobile seat market exceeds 100 billion yuan, and the seat frame accounts for 15%, corresponding to the market scale of 20 billion yuan; At the company level, the competitors are mainly overseas enterprises, which are expected to earn 420 million yuan from the company's seat frame assembly by virtue of cost performance and fast response. According to the fixed-point calculation, it is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2023, corresponding to 34% CAGR.
Customers actively explore, from Lear system to fully cover the mainstream Tier1. The company first established business contact with Dongfeng Lear in 2007 and has cooperated for more than 10 years. In 2020, the company contributed about 410 million yuan, accounting for 52%; It has cooperated with Taiji AISI system, Magna system and Yanfeng system for more than 8 years, expanded Yuantong system in 2017, accelerated customer expansion in recent two or three years, and entered systems such as Marquardt, Faurecia, CVG (commercial vehicle group), Weishi new energy, honeycomb energy technology, webastor, bentler, tennaker, Mande electronics and honeycomb transmission technology.
Horizontal business expansion, from seat frame to automobile door formwork, safety system and new energy segmentation. Through the advantages of its own customers and business technology, it will expand the automobile door formwork and safety system horizontally, and actively layout the new energy segments such as plastic electronic modules, copper bars and automobile skylight guide rails. The supporting value of single vehicle is expected to increase from an average of 300-400 yuan to more than 1000 yuan.
Investment suggestion: as the independent leader of automobile seat frame, under the general trend of Electric Intelligence reshaping the zero relationship, the company is expected to accelerate its share by virtue of cost performance and rapid response ability; At the same time, the company actively expands new customers and new categories, is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price, and open medium and long-term growth space. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 21-23 years will be RMB 858 / 12.25 / 1.680 billion, eps0.5% 94 / 1.55/2.16 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 37.99 yuan / share on December 17, 2021, PE 40 / 25 / 18 times respectively, with reference to the industry's average valuation of 20-30 times in 2021, and given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: car sales are less than expected, seat frame market share is less than expected, competition intensifies, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
