Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
event:
On December 18, we attended the 2021 "1218 consultation, co construction and sharing" conference held in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and communicated with the company.
Key investment points:
In 2021, make progress while maintaining stability, optimize product structure and upgrade channel construction. In 2021, the company adheres to the marketing policy of "improving high-quality market share as the core", with outstanding performance in sales revenue, market share, product dynamic sales and other indicators, laying a solid foundation for the 14th five year plan. 1) Product end: the structure has been continuously optimized, the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has achieved stable price and volume increase as a whole, the terminal dynamic sales has reached a new high, and the relationship between volume and price has become increasingly benign; Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was successfully introduced into the market; The series liquor system is more focused, successfully launched the new version of wuliangchun, Jianzhuang 1911, Chinese New Year of the rat liquor and other large single products, and cleared and returned 7 total distribution brands, 509 products, with a compression of 80%. 2) Channel side: the company continued to optimize traditional channels, further expanded highlands and key markets, and realized grid services for nearly 30000 social terminals, including 5300 new high-quality terminals and 1600 optimized and adjusted low-quality terminals, 665000 liquor terminals were registered (+ 52.5%); at the same time, the company focused on group purchase channels, visited nearly 30000 group purchase enterprises, and nearly 70% of them realized group purchase. In addition, the company has carried out brand promotion (close to different consumption circles and output promotion activities), consumer cultivation (personalized services for different groups) and digital construction (basically completing the construction of digital system) and other aspects have achieved breakthroughs to varying degrees.
In 2022, we will pay attention to the relationship between volume and price, channel transformation and consumer cultivation, and the return of brand value will be accelerated. In 2022, the company continues to emphasize the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability. Specifically, 1) the company adheres to the balance between supply and demand and has strong demand for price support. In the future, we will continue to consolidate the core position of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the 1000 yuan market, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will force the 2000 yuan + market. 2) Pay attention to the cultivation of consumers and strengthen the construction of culture and services. 3) Adhere to channel transformation, optimize the plan allocation of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , and strengthen the expansion of group purchase and highland market; Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) continues to improve the 1 + N + 2 channel model. 4) Pay attention to the brand development of series wine, optimize the relationship between volume and price, and promote the double promotion of its brand value and market scale.
Profit forecast and investment rating. In the short term, the average price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) payment of the eighth generation has been raised to 969 yuan in the near future. Considering the significant improvement of the company's volume and price management ability, it is expected that the general five approval price will probably stand above 1000 yuan on the basis of rising cost next year; At present, dealers are actively collecting money in the Spring Festival, and are optimistic that the company has made a good start in the peak season. In the long run, we believe that the company's continuous growth for many years has brought about a high performance base, and we should appropriately reduce the elastic expectation of the company's performance in the future; At present, the demand for the company's core products is benign and continues to be large at the price of 1000 yuan. We will continue to be optimistic about the company's sustained and steady growth in the future. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.04/6.92/8.02 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38.9/34.0/29.3 times respectively. The company will be given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemic situation leads to consumption inhibition; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) the sharp fluctuation of the economy caused the price of Baijiu to slide; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
