Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) (300947)
Core view: Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) seize the increasing office rental demand of cultural and creative enterprises and their characteristics of high price sensitivity, take the lead in the layout of the operation field of cultural and creative park and grow into an industry leader. With its excellent creative design ability and park operation and management ability, Dobe's rental rate and average price in the park continued to rise, superimposed the external expansion force, and the company's performance increased strongly.
Company introduction: a leading cultural and creative park enterprise with asset light operation
Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) began to invest and operate the cultural and Creative Industry Park in 2006 and was successfully listed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021. The company has the design and operation capacity of the whole industrial chain and is a leading cultural and creative park service provider in China. With its excellent park management and service ability and strong investment attraction ability, Dobe has won the favor of high-quality enterprises such as meituan review and Hupu sports.
Business model: mainly leasing operation, force entrusted and equity participation
From the perspective of business model, Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) mainly manages the operation park through lease operation, entrusted operation and equity participation. As of the first half of 2021, 43, 2 and 6 projects have been operated in the three ways respectively.
Leasing operation is the main business model of the company at present. Under this model, Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) locks in the cost in advance by signing a long-term lease agreement with the lessor, and rents out after the transformation and renovation of the property right, so as to earn the rent difference and have strong profit predictability. The operation mode of entrusted operation is similar to that of leased operation, but the income does not come from the tenant, but from the operation and management fee paid by the property owner; Under the management output mode of entrusted operation, the gross profit margin is high. The only difference between joint-stock operation and entrusted operation is that the joint-stock company is not controlled by Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) , and the project income is reflected in the investment income.
Industry situation: the market space is broad and the income level of the project is high
From the perspective of industry space, the role of the tertiary industry in driving economic growth is constantly improving, and cultural and creative enterprises are more sensitive to rent price while increasing the demand for office rent; The rent of the business park is relatively low, which can meet the rental needs of small and medium-sized enterprises. In terms of income level, compared with enterprises in heavy asset development holding industries such as Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) , Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.Ltd(600639) , Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) has a higher overall return on net assets.
Operation: expand the scale under management while maintaining a high rental rate
In terms of the scale of the park, the company has made efforts to expand and deeply cultivate Shanghai, while making a national and global layout, and the number and area of projects under management have increased. In addition, the overall unit rent of all projects of the company increases year by year, the rental rate remains at a high level, and the operating revenue is expected to maintain a steady growth.
Financial analysis: net profit increased after excluding the impact of leasing standards
The new leasing standards implemented since 2021 have an impact on the cost allocation of the balance sheet and income statement under the leasing mode. The asset liability ratio in the balance sheet will increase significantly; The net profit of a single project will change from a relatively stable state to a "low first and then high" trend. Excluding the impact of changes in standards, the net profit in the first half of 2021 increased by 40.64% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize operating revenue of 1.004 billion, 1.203 billion and 1.414 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, 19.8% and 17.5%, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 113 million, 131 million and 149 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, 15.8% and 13.9%. For Dobe, EBITDA can better reflect its real profit level, so EV / EBITDA valuation method is adopted. The current market value of the company corresponds to 10 times the performance in 2021, which is at a low level. Compared with the company with the same high depreciation and amortization, the valuation has certain advantages. As a leading enterprise, Shanghai Dobe Cultural & Creative Industry Development ( Group) Co.Ltd(300947) under management projects have gradually entered a mature period. The rental rate and unit rent of the existing park continue to increase, with superposition and expansion. It is expected that the company's revenue will grow steadily in the future. The first coverage is given a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economic downturn leads to a sharp decline in the rental rate, the default risk of the property owner or the lessor, the risk of customers returning the lease or the risk that investment attraction is less than expected
