Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (603198)
The performance of the third quarterly report has increased, and the potential energy of cave reservoir has risen
The company’s 2021q1-q3 revenue was 3.180 billion yuan, an increase of 43% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 962 million yuan, an increase of 81% at the same time; Deduct non RMB 912 million, an increase of 88% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q3 was 1.095 billion yuan, an increase of 27% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, an increase of 86% and a deduction of 353 million yuan, an increase of 97%. The third quarterly report continued to exceed expectations. After testing in the first and second quarters of this year, we believe that the potential energy of Dongzang series has been formed and the company has entered the performance release period. At the end of 2021q1-q3, the contract liabilities were 387 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 12 million yuan and a simultaneous increase of 47 million yuan. The reservoir effect initially appeared.
The pan regionalization effect is beginning to appear, and the payment collection is expected to be started at the end of the month
The company’s gross profit margin 2021q1-q3 was 68.47%, an increase of 3.1pct; Among them, 2021q3 was 73.37%, with an increase of 10.5pct, which was caused by the continuous optimization of the company’s products. In terms of products, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor in 2021q3 was 737 million yuan, an increase of 44% at the same time; Ordinary Baijiu revenue 294 million yuan, the same reduction of 1%, we expect the hole in the first three quarters of the growth rate doubled, accounting for 35%-40%, and the annual sales of hole series is estimated to exceed 2 billion 500 million. Regionally, the revenue in 2021q3 was 614 million yuan, an increase of 36% at the same time; The revenue outside the province was 418 million yuan, an increase of 17%. At present, the company’s revenue inside and outside the province accounts for 6:4, there is obvious progress in expansion outside the province, and the pan regionalization effect is beginning to appear. At present, we are entering the middle of December. We expect to start the Spring Festival payment collection in the middle and late of this month, and the proportion of payment collection is expected to be more than 55%.
Focus on “223” marketing strategy and expect the company to accelerate the reform progress
At present, the company is focusing on Baijiu, and strives to build tens of millions of brands and brands. It is also aiming to build beautiful cars, intelligent vehicles, cultural driving and happy driving. It aims at “entering the first phalanx of Baijiu” and becoming a famous brand in the country. The company focuses on “223” marketing strategy:
First, in terms of team building, optimize the organizational structure and strengthen the screening, training, assessment and management of reserve cadres; Optimize the salary scheme and incentive mechanism, improve work efficiency and management ability, and build an offensive learning team.
Second, in terms of product management, focus on Ecological cave collection series, create key markets for cave collection products, and rapidly increase the market share of cave collection products; Steadily increase the price of series products and effectively promote the recovery of sales of old products; Improve the dealer’s product portfolio and further optimize the product structure. At present, dong6 and dong9 account for about 80% of the Dongzang series, and Dong16 and dong20 are expected to increase rapidly in the next 3-5 years. The Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) · master edition launched at the end of 2020 leads the Dongzang series and develops the super high-end price belt of Hui wine.
Third, in terms of channel construction, focus on promoting the transfer of channel focus, implementing the core network planning and signing contracts, and improving channel control; Targeted matching of operation schemes for tobacco and wine shops, banquets, hotels, group purchases and other channels; Strengthen the intensive cultivation of various channels of dealers, increase the breadth and depth of channels, and coordinate the balanced development of the market; Enhance the performance contribution of single stores, dig deep into the offline resources of channel outlets, and focus on cultivating tasting consultants and consumption leaders. By integrating resources and accelerating development, the company has basically sunk the market in the province to districts and counties, and comprehensively distributed the Jiangsu market to prefecture level cities, so as to consolidate the strategic position of Lu’an, Hefei, Nanjing, Shanghai and other markets. As the capital of Anhui Province, Hefei focuses on intensive cultivation and is expected to radiate to the whole province in the future.
Profit forecast
At present, the Baijiu market in Anhui province shows a pattern of super strength and strong market share. We are optimistic about the continuous optimization of the product structure brought about by the high growth of the company’s Dongzang series. It is estimated that the EPS will be 1.91/2.39/2.89 yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 38 / 31 / 25 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, the growth of cave Tibet series is less than expected, and the expansion of key regions is less than expected.
