Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Event: We recently attended Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the 25th 1218 dealer conference and tracked the sales of major market channels such as Henan and Jiangsu. The updated views are as follows:
In the past 21 years, the marketing quality has been steadily improved. According to the management report, in 2021, the company’s business performance, brand value and corporate image were steadily improved, brand support, scientific and technological innovation, cultural construction, industrial ecology and team construction were significantly enhanced, and new breakthroughs were made in product structure, brand promotion, channel construction, consumer cultivation, digital transformation and manufacturer relations, so as to lay a foundation for development in the coming year. 1) product side: the price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) system increased steadily, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was introduced into the market, and the year of the ox commemorative wine and other effective supplementary product matrix. The series wine was more focused, 7 total distribution brands and 509 products were returned, the number of brands and products were reduced by 80%, and focused on self-supporting / medium and high price / high-quality brands. 2) Channel side: traditional terminals were further optimized, including 5300 new high-quality terminals, 1600 optimized low-quality terminals, 665000 series liquor terminals, with a year-on-year increase of 52.5%. The group purchase network covered nearly 30000 key enterprises, of which nearly 70% realized group purchase.
Dealer evaluation focuses more on marketing quality, and the reward coverage has also been expanded. From the perspective of this dealer evaluation, the company pays more attention to marketing quality, emphasizes joint consultation, co construction and sharing, further optimizes the evaluation method and expands the coverage of awards. 1) Evaluation rules: focusing on the five aspects of total purchase amount, average purchase price of single bottle, purchase amount of new products, distribution and marketing, in addition to the total purchase amount, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) section focuses on the evaluation of the incremental share of eight generation group purchase, the purchase amount of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the marketing process, and the proportion of cash collection is included in the value coefficient, The series liquor sector focuses on the total purchase price and the average purchase price of the current period. 2) Scope of awards: guided by the equal treatment of new and old businesses, large and small businesses, the total number of awards reached 2279 times, a year-on-year increase of 38.2%. On the one hand, this award helps to improve the enthusiasm of dealers and build a good manufacturer relationship. On the other hand, the adjustment of evaluation rules also reflects the company’s attention to channel operation quality, high-end product introduction effect and brand improvement.
After 22 years of high-quality growth, the experience potential can be expected to rise. Looking forward to 2022, the company sets a tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and puts forward five marketing priorities: continuously increasing consumer cultivation, improving brand market position, meeting consumer demand in the new era, promoting the upgrading and development of series of wines, and adhering to sharing and co construction. From the short-term tracking point of view, now entering the next year’s preparation period, the channel feedback has increased the comprehensive delivery cost of the eighth generation in 22 years, and the recent approval price has warmed up. The approval price in core markets such as Jiangsu is about 970 yuan, the channel and terminal inventory are benign, and the subsequent approval price in the peak season of the Spring Festival is expected to increase. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is still the focus of development. The company will continue to strengthen the cultivation of core groups and optimize the channel mode. 1618, low alcohol, memorial wine and other products are also expected to contribute to the increment. In the early stage, due to the slowdown of performance growth in the third quarter and the stable improvement of the general five rating, the valuation was suppressed to a certain extent. However, considering the smooth actual sales of the general five, the strong brand power of the company at the price of 1000 yuan, the 22-year high-quality growth can be expected, and the performance elasticity and valuation rise are also worth waiting for.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 24 / 287 / 34.2 billion in 2021-23, the corresponding EPS is 6.17/7.40/8.81 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 38 / 32 / 27 times. Reiterate the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) feedback is less than expected, and general five moves less than expected, and high-end Baijiu competition intensifies.
