Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039)
Key investment points
The performance of semi-trailer and special vehicle is growing steadily. The company is the largest semi-trailer manufacturer in the world and the largest special vehicle loading manufacturer in China. Its business includes semi-trailer, special vehicle loading, refrigerated van and chassis / tractor. Its product line covers all kinds of markets from low price to medium and high end. In the first three quarters, the sales volume of various semi trailers, special vehicle tops and light box cars of the company increased by 21% year-on-year to 163300 sets / set, the operating revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to 22.6 billion yuan, and the annual performance is expected to reach a new high in recent years.
Road transport vehicles have been upgraded. China's highway transportation volume remains above 34 billion tons. Under the overload control, the non-conforming models are eliminated, the single vehicle carrying capacity is reduced, and the infrastructure demand is picking up. The overall demand for semi-trailer and special vehicle will continue to grow. With the advancement of the specialization construction of the logistics industry, more professional semi trailers such as van cars and refrigerated vehicles will be used for goods with high requirements for packaging and transportation to replace ordinary flat cars. After the mandatory installation / upgrading of the safety system for the lower breast board / grate semi-trailer of the new national standard, the price advantage is also offset, further promoting the release of the demand for professional semi-trailer.
The 14th five year plan for the cold chain industry was issued, and the demand and standard of refrigerated vehicles were improved. There is a big dislocation between the development status of China's cold chain industry and downstream demand. The number of refrigerated vehicles per thousand people is only 6% - 8% of that in the United States, Japan and other countries. On December 12, the State Council issued the cold chain logistics development plan for the 14th five year plan, which proposed to standardize and standardize the refrigerated vehicle industry, promote the R & D and manufacturing of thermal insulation materials and vehicles and the construction of model / specification system, strengthen the application and upgrading of on-board equipment, and simultaneously build auxiliary systems such as vehicle and goods matching, dispatching and convenient traffic policies. Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) as a specialized large-scale enterprise, it has perfect production and R & D capacity. With the help of China International Marine Containers (Group) Co.Ltd(000039) cold chain business layout, it is expected to establish a leading position in the refrigerated vehicle market dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises with low concentration.
Global brand and factory layout, overseas performance returned to growth. Adhering to the local manufacturing concept, the company has built 12 semi-trailer production lighthouse factories, 6 special vehicle loading production lighthouse factories and 2 refrigerated van body production lighthouse factories in China, the United States and Europe, operating 10 well-known brands in the industry. Although the overseas market is faced with adverse factors such as trade friction and tariff increase in North America, the European and American markets have stable road transportation demand and high model specialization level. Relying on the advantages of product competitiveness and market share, the company achieved double growth in sales and revenue in Europe and America in the first three quarters.
Investment suggestion: give the company "overweight" rating for the first time. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.60/0.79/0.98 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 22.6/17.2/13.8 times. The company occupies a leading position in the market and performed well in various markets and business lines in the first three quarters. The semi-trailer business benefits from the growth of market demand in Europe and America and the policy upgrading in China. The demand for special purpose vehicles and refrigerated vehicles in China is expected to increase significantly. The company was rated as "overweight" for the first time.
Risk warning: the cost of raw materials increases; International trade friction; The increase in demand was less than expected
