Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Event 1: on December 20, the company announced that it would make additional investment in the Hungarian wet lithium diaphragm project, with a total additional investment of no more than 157 million euros, which would be used for infrastructure construction and the addition of three coating production lines, slitting equipment and other related supporting facilities. After this additional investment, the total investment of the company's Hungarian wet lithium diaphragm project will reach 340 million euros.
Event 2: December 20, The company announced that the holding subsidiary Yunnan hongchuang Packaging Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "hongchuang packaging") signed the investment cooperation agreement on "Enjie liquid package project" with Changzhou Jintan District People's government and Jiangsu Jintan Economic Development Zone Management Committee According to the agreement, hongchuang packaging initiated and established the project company Jiangsu hongchuang Packaging Co., Ltd. (tentative name) to invest in the construction of sterile liquid packaging box project in Jincheng science and Technology Industrial Park, Jintan Economic Development Zone, Jiangsu. The total investment of the project is expected to be 2 billion yuan, mainly engaged in the R & D, manufacturing and sales of sterile packaging coils and prefabricated box products.
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Increase investment in Hungarian projects, expand together at home and abroad, and enhance competitive advantage
The Hungarian project of the company plans to build four fully automatic imported film making production lines and more than 30 coating production lines. The overall annual production capacity of the base film of the project is about 400 million square meters. It is expected to start mass production before the end of Q1 in 2023. The company's additional investment will further promote the overall construction progress of the project, expand the original planned production capacity to a certain extent, enhance the overall overseas influence of the Hungarian project and facilitate the development of the company's overseas business. In China, the company issued a fixed increase plan on the evening of November 12. It plans to raise no more than 12.8 billion yuan to invest and build a total capacity of 3.2 billion square meters of lithium diaphragm, 280 million square meters of aluminum plastic film and 200 million square meters of coated film in Chongqing, Changzhou, Jiangsu and Suzhou, greatly improve the company's capacity of lithium diaphragm and broaden the product line of lithium membrane. At the same time, the company has also successively signed cooperation agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other industry leaders to increase the certainty of subsequent new capacity performance release through in-depth binding with downstream customers.
Invest 2 billion yuan to build a sterile liquid packaging box project and cut into the consumer goods track
Aseptic liquid packaging box is a kind of container with high technical content in liquid packaging products. It is widely used in liquid dairy products, non carbonated drinks and other industries. Taking liquid milk as an example, according to the data of the U.S. Department of agriculture, the global liquid milk consumption will reach 193 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 1.5%, of which China's liquid milk consumption will reach 14.5 million tons, Year on year growth of about 11.5% (the compound growth rate in 2019-2021 is 4.8%). Although China's liquid milk consumption accounts for less than 10% of the world, the overall consumption growth rate is significantly higher than the global average. In addition, according to Ifind data, the compound growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents in China during 2015-2020 is 7.0% and 8.4% respectively. With the stable growth of disposable income of Chinese residents, Consumer demand for liquid dairy products and non carbonated beverages is expected to continue to increase, thereby increasing the market demand for sterile liquid packaging. As the leader of new energy membrane products, the company invested 2 billion yuan to build a sterile liquid packaging box project, which cut into the consumer goods track, which is conducive to broadening the coverage of the company's products to downstream products.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the progress of the company's Hungarian project is in line with expectations. In addition, the production progress of the company's sterile solution package project is not clear, and we will not consider the corresponding performance increment for the time being. We maintain the company's profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.581/41.27/6.015 billion respectively, and still maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: landing risk of cooperative projects, capacity construction risk, lower downstream demand than expected, diaphragm price fluctuation risk.
