Industry view 1 this week: the expectation of steady growth is not reduced, and the price of potash fertilizer is pushed up
According to the various “steady growth” policies and reduced growth targets intensively issued by various ministries and commissions, provinces and cities recently, we believe that the market’s expectation of China’s good economic development in 2022 is constantly repairing and confidence is increasing. According to the China phosphate and compound fertilizer industry association, Ukraine stopped the railway transportation of mineral fertilizer of Belarus potash fertilizer company on February 16. The regulations apply to all consignees in Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, the CIS and the Baltic States until the ban is lifted and the international potash supply side is disturbed. China is highly dependent on imports, and the price of potash fertilizer has a strong correlation with the international market. According to Longzhong express, the ex factory ton price of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) in February was 3500 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream transaction price has risen to about 42004300 yuan / ton. In terms of imported potassium, there is less spot in the market, resulting in an upward price. According to the data of wind and Baichuan Yingfu, as of February 25, the inventory of China’s potassium chloride industry was 256000 tons, at an all-time low. We believe that with the potash import contract price hitting a record high, the global agrochemical industry continues to boom, and China’s spring farming demand is advancing, the potash boom is expected to continue to rise. Beneficiary objects: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) .
Industry view 2 this week: soda ash continues to go to the warehouse, tetrachloroethylene inventory is low, and the price continues to rise
Soda ash: according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the quotation of some light soda ash enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton; Some enterprises of heavy soda ash do not offer at the end of the month, and some enterprises offer to operate stably; As of February 25, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.034 million tons, down 8.41% from last week. This week, the resumption of plant production of individual enterprises and the increase of load production of individual enterprises led to a slight increase in supply, but the orders of soda ash manufacturers were relatively sufficient, and some enterprises continued to control or temporarily did not receive orders. Refrigerant: according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of February 25, the ex factory price of bulk water of tetrachloroethylene enterprises in Shandong Province was 12600 / ton, and some manufacturers did not make an offer temporarily due to device problems; The ex factory price of bulk water of tetrachloroethylene enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 13000 yuan / ton; The price of tetrachloroethylene in Northwest and southwest China is 1240012600 yuan / ton. Recently, the import supply of tetrachloroethylene was delayed to Hong Kong. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of February 25, the inventory of tetrachloroethylene was 0800 tons, down 7.14% from last week, and fell sharply for three consecutive weeks; Some enterprises in Southwest China have parking maintenance plans at the end of the month, and the market supply is relatively scarce; In addition, the downstream refrigerant R125 is mainly used for mixing, and the operating load is increased. After the festival, the supply of raw materials is tightening, and the price is expected to lead the rise, and the support of refrigerant cost is strengthened.
Industry news this week: the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan was launched
[energy storage] on February 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued a notice on the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan. The plan proposes that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. Among them, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology is further improved, and the system cost is reduced by more than 30%. [lithium iron phosphate] Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) 12 billion yuan to invest in lithium iron phosphate project.
Beneficial object
[leading white horse in chemical industry] Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , etc; [chemical fiber industry] Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ; [soda ash industry] Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) , etc; [fluorochemical] China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) , Dongyue Group, Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) etc; [phosphorus chemical industry] Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , etc; [silicon] Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , etc.
Risk tip: the oil price has fallen sharply; Weak downstream demand; Macroeconomic downturn.
