Industrial metals: steady growth drives industrial metal demand to improve
Aluminum: the disturbance of overseas supply increases, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to strengthen
This week, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine further intensified. The “Beixi No. 2” natural gas project was shelved indefinitely. It is difficult to alleviate the European energy crisis in the short term, and the continuous rise of natural gas prices will also lead to the continuous rise of its production costs. It is not ruled out that its electrolytic aluminum production capacity may shrink again. On the other hand, as Russia’s primary aluminum production accounts for 5.6% of the world’s total output (3.76 million tons in 2021) and mainly exports (mainly Europe and Asia), aluminum prices are expected to continue to strengthen in the future with the continuous fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, mainly benefiting Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , etc.
Copper: weak fundamentals and strong expectations play a game, and copper prices may remain volatile in the short term
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, the uncertainty of the global macro environment strengthened, and the copper price fluctuated this week. At present, the trend of copper price is in the fierce game stage of weak fundamentals and strong expectations. The recovery speed of downstream demand was lower than expected, and the inventory continued to accumulate this week. However, the market has strong expectations for China’s “steady growth”, and is optimistic about the possibility of marginal recovery of demand in the later stage. The recovery of demand in the later stage needs to be paid special attention. The short-term copper price may maintain a volatile pattern, mainly benefiting Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
Energy metals: the prosperity of the industry continues to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent
Lithium: the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate, and the price of lithium reaches a new high
Lithium salt production enterprises continued to resume production this week, but due to the shortage of raw materials of upstream lithium resources, the supply increment is still insufficient. At the same time, at present, the supply of lithium salt in the market is mainly long-term orders, with less circulating spot, and the supply of lithium salt products is in short supply. In the short term, the tight supply situation is difficult to be effectively alleviated, and the lithium price is expected to continue to rise in the future. The main beneficiaries include Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc.
Cobalt: the tight supply and demand situation has not been alleviated, and the price may remain high
In terms of cobalt, affected by overseas logistics, China’s Cobalt raw material supply continues to be tight, China’s electric cobalt inventory is generally low, the tight supply and demand situation has not been effectively alleviated, and the price of electric cobalt is expected to remain high. China’s cobalt salt supply also continues to be tight. In addition, the downstream new energy vehicle market demand is strong, the inventory under rigid replenishment decreases slightly, and the cobalt salt price continues to rise. It is expected that the cobalt salt price will remain high, mainly benefiting Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Rare earth: supply tension intensifies, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
Although China’s first batch of indicators for 2022 have been issued, the overall increment is limited. At the same time, the supply of NdFeB waste in China has also declined due to insufficient supply, upside down cost and other problems. Overseas, due to the Myanmar epidemic, the shortage of imported ore supply is also increasing, and the price of rare earth is still easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future. The main beneficiaries include China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the price of precious metals has been strongly supported
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further escalated this week, and the rise of global risk aversion promoted the rapid rise of precious metal prices in the short term. On the other hand, as the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on gold tends to weaken, inflation trading has become the mainstream of the market and constitutes medium-term support for gold prices. The main beneficiaries include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , etc.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc.
