Zhou's view: the most tense stage of the contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the post cycle will benefit
(1) new energy vehicles: the price of lithium battery cathode industry chain continues to rise. We expect that the first quarter will be the time when the contradiction between supply and demand is the largest, and it is expected to be alleviated quarter by quarter later; The prominent contradiction in the first quarter was mainly caused by different production capacity release cycles, and the later supply side is expected to accelerate the release. The release of the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan is expected to add weight and open the third growth curve of lithium batteries, which will also benefit from the subsequent release of middle and upstream capacity. We believe that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) and others will benefit from the elastic investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage and power exchange; (c) New technology: invest according to the rate of penetration improvement, such as 4680, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: the upstream price of the industrial chain is still rising, and the release rhythm of the supply side is lower than expected, which is expected to ease in March and April; We expect that 2022 will be a critical period for new technology breakthroughs, with n-type batteries and granular silicon as the core; In the inverter industry, the localization and speed-up of core parts is an important focus. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) and other benefits; (b) Terminal links such as global leading components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , etc; (c) In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the innovation of the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies, which will benefit Jingke energy and poly GCL energy.
(3) wind power: the wind and scenery base project continues to be implemented, and the long-term growth expectation is improved; The price reduction of industrial chain products has formed a good positive demand feedback, and the bidding price has reached the relative bottom range; The real parity upward cycle will be started in 2022, and the industry valuation system is expected to be reshaped. Companies like Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and others will benefit from long-term bullish on offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts.
Comments on energy storage policy: the energy storage development plan is implemented, and the post cycle is expected to continue
Recently, the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan has been officially issued. It is proposed that the cost of electrochemical energy storage system will be reduced by more than 30% by 2025, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to accelerate upward (from the initial stage of commercialization to the stage of large-scale development). Energy storage will fully enjoy the post cycle elasticity in 2022. (1) From the perspective of core growth, focus on the links with high value (the cost of battery and energy storage inverter is relatively high), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other benefits; (2) From the perspective of certainty, the short-term profit of overseas home storage is good, and the medium and long-term focus on the quadratic curve of power side energy storage growth, Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) and other benefits; (3) From the perspective of elasticity, companies with high proportion of energy storage revenue and good elasticity include Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) in the field of battery and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) in the field of inverter.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: in 2021, the national lithium-ion battery output increased by 106% year-on-year
New energy automobile companies: 19 enterprises increased their capital to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) automobile batteries with a total of 2.43 billion yuan
Photovoltaic industry level: the National Energy Administration vigorously promotes the development of photovoltaic base and standardizes the development of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county
At the level of photovoltaic companies: Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) 2021, the operating revenue was 44.490 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.876 billion yuan
At the level of wind energy industry: the bid opening of the Three Gorges 3000MW offshore wind power project, with a pre bid winning total price of more than 33.8 billion yuan
At the level of wind energy company: Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) the board of directors deliberated and approved proposals on changing the registered capital and amending the articles of association
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
