At present, we recommend four main lines:
(1) optimistic about the sustainability of the performance in the first half of the year, and the performance is expected to continue to exceed the expected target, recommend Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) : in the medium and short term, on the one hand, 200000 ingots are expected to be put into production in 22 / 23 years; On the other hand, the company's low-cost cotton inventory in Vietnam is expected to last until the first half of 22 years. In the long run, we put more emphasis on the company's non cyclical growth logic, that is, the improvement of bargaining power brought by the increase of the company's share. In addition, focus on the company's growth with the expansion of Shenzhou, the largest customer.
(2) if the value is underestimated and the performance elasticity is large, the object of benefit is Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) .
(3) target with high-end track positioning and extension expansion space, recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : 1) the main brand increases the efforts to open stores in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain an increase of more than 10%, and usher in the improvement of net interest rate with the production of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
(4) high view track target, recommended Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) Domestic business benefited from the policy of superposition and double reduction of epidemic situation, driving the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half in the future, and the superimposed net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.85pct
The textile and gem composite index lost 13.0% and the PCT composite index lost 28.1% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 31.0%. Among them, SW textile manufacturing fell 1.03%, and SW clothing and home textile fell 0.52%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 15.11. This week, high-end women's wear performed best, with an increase of 0.73%; E-commerce performed the worst, down 6.21%.
Market data tracking: China's cotton price index fell 0.03% this week
As of February 25, China's cotton 328 index was 22816 yuan / ton, down 0.03% this week, and China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 21209 yuan / ton, down 1.08% this week. As of February 24, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 21417 yuan / ton, up 1.24% this week. On the whole, the price difference of cotton inside and outside this week was 1607 yuan / ton, an increase of 225 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.
As of February 17, the Australian Wool Exchange East market composite index was 1420 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 64792 yuan / ton (a $1 = 4.5628 yuan), down 0.14% from 1422 Australian cents / kg on February 10.
According to ecdataway data, in January 2022, China's garment industry achieved online sales of 51.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. In terms of sub categories, the sales volume of women's wear in January was the highest, reaching 12.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%; In January, the average unit price of sports shoes was the highest, reaching 308.16 yuan / pair, with a year-on-year increase of 0.75%.
Risk tips
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
