Weekly observation: the rising breeding cost will accelerate the pace of de production of pigs
As of February 25, the national average selling price of pigs was 12.5 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan per kilogram month on month; The average sales price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.68 yuan / kg, up 0.03 yuan / kg month on month. Affected by the “escalation of Russia Ukraine situation” this week, the uncertain factors of global food security increased, accelerating the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) futures prices, and the prices of corn and soybean meal in China jumped. As of February 25, the settlement prices of active contracts of China yellow corn and soybean meal futures were reported at 2840 yuan / ton and 3970 yuan / ton respectively, up 2.3% and 5.0% month on month respectively. According to the calculation of pig feed meat ratio coefficient of 2.6, the single head loss of breeding industry shows a continuous amplification trend.
The contradiction of excess supply of pigs in the short term has not changed, and the deregulation of production capacity will be accelerated. On the demand side, the pig price will fluctuate in the range of 12-13 yuan / kg, and it will be difficult to form a trend of column pressing, secondary fattening and frozen product accumulation. On the supply side, the single head loss of pig fattening is expanded, which looks like a “boiled frog in warm water”, which is easy to form a more passive state. Therefore, in the first half of 2022, the average weight of the industry will decline, which will more effectively alleviate the contradiction of short-term excess supply. In addition, we believe that the amplification of single head losses will still accelerate the clearing of inferior production capacity.
Zhou’s view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales will continue to benefit from the high stock of pigs and poultry. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (2.21-2.25): Agriculture underperformed the market by 2.14 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13% and the agricultural index fell by 3.27%, underperforming the market by 2.14 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and forestry sector led the rise, with an increase of 5.03%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Lontrue Co.Ltd(300175) (+ 25.12%), Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 15.00%), Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) (+ 11.90%).
Price tracking this week (2.21-2.25): shrimp and bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on February 25, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.34 yuan / kg, compared with -0.03 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 23.95 yuan / kg, compared with -0.02 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of white striped meat was 16.15 yuan / kg, down from -0.11 yuan / kg last Friday. On February 25, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.39:1. According to wind data, on February 25, the average profit of self breeding head was -495.14 yuan / head, compared with -158.44 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets was -149.84 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -158.44 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.13/feather, with a month on month ratio of – 12 / 40%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.51 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of – 4.09%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -0.91 yuan / feather, compared with -1.04 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
