Key points
In 2022, the driving force of credit easing mainly lies in government related fields, real estate and green industries. According to the "triangular model" of budget planning, it is estimated that RMB loans will increase by 21-22 trillion in 2022, at least 1 trillion more than that in 2021, with a growth rate of about 11%, down 0.6 percentage points from 2021. The main driving points of wide credit are government related fields, real estate and green industries:
(1) it is estimated that bank and government loans will increase by 8.5 trillion, at least 1 trillion more than that in 2021, with a growth rate of 14.21%, basically the same as that in 2021. Focus on urban renewal and transformation, two new and one heavy industries, power and heat, rail transit and other fields. It is not ruled out that some funds are used to resolve the operating debt of the urban investment platform.
(2) it is estimated that housing related loans will increase by 4.8 trillion, with a growth rate of 9.14%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 2021. Among them, development loans increased by 400 billion, 549 billion more than that in 2021. The investment subjects are policy banks and four major actors. The investment objects are mostly local state-owned real estate enterprises. The projects are mainly affordable housing development and construction, and the investment of commercial housing development loans is relatively weak. With the continuous efforts of the "package" measures for the demand for reasonable and compliant financing, the time point for the current round of real estate sales growth to reach the bottom and stabilize may fall in Q2 this year. The consensus on the relaxation of housing mortgage loans is high and the operability is stronger. It is expected that the housing mortgage loans will increase by 4.4 trillion in 2022, an increase of 507.4 billion over 2021.
(3) it is estimated that green loans will increase by 4.5 trillion, an increase of about 550 billion over 2021, with a growth rate of 28.3%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points over 2021, but significantly higher than the growth rate of various loans and in line with the requirements of MPA assessment.
(4) it is estimated that manufacturing loans will increase by 3 trillion, of which medium and long-term loans will increase by 2 trillion. Instruments, Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) , special general equipment and other high-end manufacturing fields show the characteristics of "high growth and low non-performing". It is estimated that the new scale of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans is about 3.9 trillion, an increase of about 100 billion over 2021, with a growth rate of 20.48%.
In 2022, the margin of bank deposit loan ratio improved, but nsfr still needs to stop falling and stabilize, and the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit further increased. It is estimated that the growth rate of general bank deposits in 2022 will be 8.5%, the new scale will be about 16.1 trillion, and the growth difference between deposits and loans will be 2.5%, 1 percentage point lower than that in 2021. In order to stop the decline and stabilize nsfr, we need to further strengthen the treasurer's liabilities. It is expected that the filing amount of interbank certificates of deposit in 2022 will be increased compared with 2021, and the net financing scale will be 3.2 trillion, about 400 billion higher than 2021. In other aspects, it is estimated that the new loans from the central bank will be about 1.3 trillion, the new financial bonds will be about 2.5 trillion, and the new inter-bank liabilities will be about 4 trillion.
In 2022, the allocation of bank bonds will not decrease, and the allocation supply ratio will remain high. It is estimated that the scale of bank debt distribution in 2022 will be about 7.1 trillion, an increase of 230 billion over 2021. Among them, the total scale of allocated national debt + local debt is 5.5 trillion, which is basically the same as that in 2021. For the upper limit of net financing of government bonds in 2022, it is expected that the upper limit of net financing of government bonds + general bonds of local governments will be maintained at 3.6-3.8 trillion, and the net financing of special bonds will be 3.65 trillion, that is, the theoretical upper limit of net financing of government bonds is 7.3-7.5 trillion, and the bank allocation supply ratio is 73.3% - 75.3%, which is the same as that in 2021 and 8-10 percentage points higher than that in 2020.
When the yield of 10Y treasury bonds breaks through 2.8% upward, it is attractive for banks. When the public loan interest rate of state-owned banks is reduced to about 4.4%, its EVA will be reduced to 0, that is, the public loan interest rate has less than 10bp of safety space than at present. Considering that 1y-lpr has been reduced by 15bp from December 2021 to January 2022, and the interest rate of newly issued loans itself is lower than the interest rate of stock loans, coupled with the fact that the regulatory authorities may guide banks to transfer profits to the real economy again in 2022, the interest rate of newly issued corporate loans will be under pressure in 2022, resulting in a further decline of EVA. Under the constraint that the cost performance of bond assets is better than that of loans, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds will also decline with the EVA of corporate loans, that is, when the yield of 10Y treasury bonds breaks through 2.8%, it will be attractive to banks. This means that the release of bank allocation demand will have the effect of interest rate stabilizer. Once the yield of 10Y treasury bonds enters the range of 2.8-2.9%, the upward action will slow down.
Risk analysis: the credit supply is high, the continuity is not strong, and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates more than expected.
