Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: the sales volume in China in January was not weak in the off-season, and the overseas market as a whole met expectations. 1) China: 41.2347000 vehicles were sold in batches according to the standards of the passenger Federation in January, and the overall off-season is not light; Overseas: 127000 vehicles were sold in 10 major European countries, with a yoy of + 33% / - 48%, in line with expectations. The sales volume of 54000 vehicles in the United States in January fell slightly month on month, exceeding expectations. According to our grassroots research, the sales volume planning goal of the head main engine factory in 22 years is ambitious, and the increment of terminal sales may further focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain. 2) How much does price shock affect car sales? Based on the historical experience such as the oil crisis in the 1970s, we believe that the fluctuations of GDP and automobile sales are basically the same, while industrial shocks such as the rise of oil prices and bulk raw materials produce more structural effects and have less impact on the overall sales. This is because cars are different from other consumer goods. Cars are one of the consumer goods with the widest selling price.
Spare parts: focus on the supply chain of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other leading automobile enterprises incrementally, and focus on the track with large marginal increase in penetration and localization rate. We expect that in 22 years, the volume elasticity of the whole vehicle link will focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain; Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The direction of increasing localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: the price system fluctuates in this round, and the competitive advantage of strong bargaining leader is expected to expand. Focus on the changes in profit distribution caused by price transmission in the industrial chain. 1. In February, the off-season of midstream production scheduling is not light. From March, the new production capacity of midstream head company will be put into operation gradually, and the chain ratio of production scheduling will be greatly improved. The sector has recently retreated to near pe30x in 22 years and entered the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with accelerated localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1. Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) comments: get another vacant order and accelerate domestic substitution. 2. Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) comments: after more than 30 years of deep cultivation of vehicle speakers, it has excellent texture and won a large number of new force projects, which is expected to increase the volume and price.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
