The price of float glass continues to rise, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak
This week, the average price of float glass in China increased by 2.30% month on month (MOM) compared with last week. The orders of processing plants were not followed up enough, and the trading of float factories became weaker. The manufacturer's inventory was 41.24 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.14 million weight boxes compared with last week. The production capacity during the week was 173925t / D, a decrease of 450 tons month on month (MOM). This week, the cost side soda ash and fuel prices rose steadily, the price of the original film stabilized, and the profit growth of float glass slowed down. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year.
The short-term demand for photovoltaic has increased, and we continue to pay attention to the progress of production capacity
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 19.2 and 25 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 23.00 days, down 4.61% from last week. Recently, the price of raw materials has risen steadily, the soda ash market is operating at a high level, some bidding projects of terminal power stations have been promoted, and the short-term demand has increased. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 43410 tons, an increase of 2.84% month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we think the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin), and from the perspective of dilemma reversal [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
