Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 277918 points, down 2.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.44pct, ranking 18th in the list of gains and losses of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: it is difficult to solve the low inventory in the port, and the coal price does not have the risk of deep decline. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 1120 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In addition to a few coal mines, the production of most coal mines has not recovered steadily to the normal level; With the increase of coal demand for the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the terminal demand of power plant and chemical industry is released, the enthusiasm of platform and long-distance transportation is high, and the inventory of most coal mines is low. In terms of ports, downstream demand recovered rapidly, industrial and residential power demand increased, procurement volume increased slightly, and the transfer out volume continued to grow; Under the price limit policy, traders have low transaction willingness, the increase of transfer out volume is limited, the transfer in is less than the transfer out, the inventory in Beigang begins to decline, and the coal storage in QinGang falls to less than 5 million tons again. Downstream, the daily consumption rebounded slightly, and the inventory of power plants fell rapidly. After the closing of the Winter Olympics, the resumption of work and production of enterprises around Beijing accelerated. Coupled with the low temperature in many parts of the country, the demand for power for Industry and residents increased, the daily consumption rebounded slightly, and the inventory of power plants fell rapidly. In terms of imports, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in winter boosted the sentiment of the Asia Pacific market; Moreover, the supply-demand relationship of overseas coal price market is subject to fluctuations. According to sxcoal, Japan has officially announced to stop importing coal from Russia, and South Korea will also stop importing Russian coal. Under this influence, coal prices have maintained an upward trend. Considering that China’s port coal is lowered by policy pressure and the imported coal hangs upside down again, it will affect the subsequent coal import quantity to a certain extent. At present, the main contradiction in the power coal market is still along the coast. On the surface, it is profitable to send coal to the port, but the policy risk is large (the price limit is required to be 900 yuan / ton), the railway shipment volume and the coal transfer in volume of ports around the Bohai Sea are low, and the coal transfer in volume of ports in the short term may be difficult to increase substantially (especially the market coal). At present, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the cost of imported coal is high. When China’s coal price faces policy risks at any time, the imported coal hangs upside down again, or the import quantity may be reduced, which will affect the supply of coastal power coal. If the problem of low inventory in the coastal area cannot be solved, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline. 700800 yuan / ton in the medium and short term should be the bottom area of the coastal coal price.
Coking coal: the demand improved as scheduled, and the price entered the upward channel. This week, the demand for raw coal in the downstream market increased, the coal mine sales were good, and the transaction premium of online auction increased, especially the price of high-quality coal such as main coking coal, fat coal and lean coal increased greatly, with an increase of about 200400 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 2830 yuan / ton, up 330 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. This week, the coal mines in the producing areas have basically resumed normal production, and the supply continues to increase. As for the import of Mongolian coal, at present, the daily customs clearance vehicles at the port operate at a low level as a whole (the customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port this week remains at a low level of about 100 vehicles), and the terminal demand increases, the market transaction situation is good, and the quotation of traders is temporarily stable; In terms of maritime import, Australian coal continued zero shipment. Since late January, the weekly arrival volume of the United States, Canada and Russia has been 450000 tons lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, affected by the Russian Ukrainian incident, some resources are expected to delay delivery, the shortage of available resources intensifies, the forward quotation of marine coal continues to rise, and the counter-offer gap of China’s foreign reports further widens. On the demand side, after the Winter Olympic Games, the operating rate of both coke and steel companies rose, adding that the raw coal storage of most coke and steel enterprises is temporarily at a medium low level, and the demand for raw coal is good. In the short term, there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. With the superposition of low inventory of coking steel enterprises, the downstream has sufficient power to actively replenish the inventory, and the coking coal price has entered the rising channel.
Coke: supply and demand improved, and the first round of increase landed. This week, the first round of coke rise landed, and the first round of coke rise was 200 yuan / ton. On the supply side, after the Winter Olympics, the environmental protection control of the production area was relaxed. After the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit was slightly repaired, and the start-up of coke enterprises increased slightly, but some coke enterprises still implemented a certain proportion of production restriction due to environmental protection and other factors; With the recovery of downstream demand and traders’ purchase in the market, the shipment of coke enterprises has improved, the inventory pressure in the plant has been effectively alleviated, and the inventory in the plant continues to decline. Most coke enterprises in the central and western regions have no inventory in the plant. On the demand side, the efforts of the downstream steel mills to resume production have not decreased, the blast furnace operation of the northern steel mill has returned to a high level, the daily hot metal output has increased steadily, and the steel mills have a strong demand for coke procurement and replenishment. However, with the recovery of market sentiment, the enthusiasm of speculative demand enters the market to compete for the supply of goods, superimposed with the limited upstream supply and some hoarding and reluctant sale, the arrival of steel mills has dropped compared with the previous period, It is a little difficult to increase the stock. On the whole, the downstream demand has just increased, the marginal supply and demand of coke has improved, and the price of coking coal has increased. Under the support of cost, the price of coke is still expected to rise, and the bullish sentiment in the coke market is strong. Investment strategy. On February 25, the national development and Reform Commission recently issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism, which defined the reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction prices (including tax) in the coal extraction link in key areas. The reasonable range of coal price with calorific value of 5500kcal in Shanxi is 370570 yuan / ton, and that of 5500kcal in Shaanxi is 320520 yuan / ton, The coal price with calorific value of 5500 kcal in Western Mongolia is 260460 yuan / ton, and the reasonable range of coal price with calorific value of 3500 kcal in eastern Mongolia is 200300 yuan / ton. The above price is only for the long-term association price, which is derived from the medium and long-term price of Qinhuangdao underground coal minus the costs of short-term automobile transportation, railway freight, port miscellaneous port construction, storage and loading and unloading. It is essentially the same as the price range of the port. Considering that the long-term association price of coal in January and February is 725 yuan / ton, which is far from reaching the upper limit of 570770 yuan / ton, it has a limited impact on the long-term association price of coal. After entering the off-season of demand in March, coal prices may show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, the increase of Hong Kong coal stocks in this round is much higher than that of a shares, which also reflects that under the macro environment of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, foreign capital pursues the target of high dividend, and the subsequent A shares are expected to catch up. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China’s output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
