Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 1.13% and – 0.35% respectively, and the trade retail (CITIC) index rose by – 2.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (34 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 5.18% and – 9.72% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 5.26%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and outperforming the Shenzhen composite index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 2.16%, ranking 18th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 10 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were power equipment, national defense and military industry and electronic components, with an increase of 3.96%, 3.27% and 2.67% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 5.26%, ranking 15th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, five of the 29 CITIC primary industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and non-ferrous metals, with an increase of 9.09%, 3.59% and 3.07% respectively.
In the past week, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries were gold jewelry, trade and professional market, with an increase of 0.21%, – 0.15% and – 1.22% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are gold jewelry, professional market and trade, with an increase of 0.77%, – 0.97% and – 2.81% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 27 companies rose, 2 companies were flat and 64 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Shanghai Yimin Commercial Group Co.Ltd(600824) , Sunny Loan Top Co.Ltd(600830) and Baida Group Co.Ltd(600865) , with an increase of 22.51%, 19.30% and 10.63% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 41 companies have increased, 2 companies have remained unchanged and 50 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) and Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) , with an increase of 138.28%, 30.58% and 28.94% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
There are local conflicts in the international situation, and there is a high probability that the short-term gold price trend will rise. Historically, the rise of gold price is conducive to the improvement of gross profit margin of gold jewelry sales, so as to stimulate the overall profitability of the industry. We have repeatedly stressed the view that we are optimistic about the gold and jewelry sub sector in 1h2022, and believe that the prosperity of gold and jewelry still has no obvious downward trend. In particular, various gold jewelry companies focusing on gold sales still have pulse opportunities in the short term. On the contrary, the demand for mass consumer goods still lacks long-term driving factors, the offline retail sector is still under pressure, and short-term suggestions are mainly on the sidelines. To sum up, we are most optimistic about the gold jewelry sector, and the valuation of gold jewelry companies is generally low and relatively safe. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
