[core view of this week] the steady growth sector has been adjusted this week. We believe that it is mainly due to the continuous introduction of relevant policies in the near future, and the market expectation has increased rapidly, but the transmission of steady growth policies still needs time. In January and February, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the change of fundamentals is relatively lagging behind. At the moment when the market expectation is full but the fundamentals have not changed significantly, Steady growth is caused by increased fluctuations in the sector. The Politburo meeting this week continues to take a positive attitude towards steady growth. At the same time, the convening of the “two sessions” next week is also expected to increase the weight in the direction of steady growth, and the improvement of industry fundamentals is expected to speed up. Steady growth is still the main line of the current sector, and continue to be optimistic about undervalued blue chips China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (pe3.9x), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (promotion of core beneficiary infrastructure REITs, pe6.2x); Local state-owned enterprises recommend high growth regional leaders Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (pe4.8x), Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) (pe7.7x); Capital construction design recommendation China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) (pe7.8x). This week, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued a document to provide financial support for affordable housing, which is expected to accelerate the construction of affordable housing this year, and the valuation of relevant high-quality leaders is expected to be improved. It is mainly recommended that China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) International (pe6.8x), the leader of affordable housing design Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) (pe14x), the leader of affordable housing construction with rich experience in housing projects The third-party evaluation leader of affordable housing Shenzhen Ridge Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd(300977) (pe19x). In addition, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development focused on promoting the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry and the transformation of pipe networks at the press conference of the state information office this week. Building industrialization and greening are important trends in the current industry. Their development has significantly driven the development of prefabricated PC, steel structure, bapv / BIPV and other component industries, as well as the rise of subdivided fields such as building energy conservation, Focus on recommending steel structure engineering leader Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (pe11x), steel structure manufacturing leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (pe17x), microgrid leader Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (pe28x), Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) (pe22x); This year, the promotion policies for the transformation and construction of urban pipe network were issued continuously, focusing on the recommendation of Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (pe20x), a leading energy-saving enterprise of China’s one-stop heat supply network.
The policy of stabilizing growth is still positive, and we continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the main line of stabilizing growth. The steady growth sector has been adjusted this week. We believe that it is mainly due to the continuous introduction of relevant policies in the near future, and the market expectation has increased rapidly, but the transmission of steady growth policies still needs time. In January and February, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the fundamental changes are relatively lagging behind. At the moment when the current market expectation is full but the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the steady growth sector has increased volatility; At the same time, great changes have taken place in the international geopolitical situation this week, increasing the valuation fluctuation of central enterprises with more overseas business. The “six pronged meeting” of the “six pronged approach” of “maintaining steady economic growth” and “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of the “six pronged approach” of “maintaining steady economic growth” and “maintaining steady social development” of the “six pronged approach”. This year’s “two sessions” will be held in Beijing from March 4 to 5, 2022 (next week). At present, it is relatively close. Considering the great downward pressure on China’s economy this year, the “two sessions” are expected to introduce more specific policies, measures and development goals this year. From the current GDP targets for 2022 set by 31 provinces and cities, 9 are about 7% or more, 12 are about 6% or more, and 8 are about 5.5% or more. The overall target is relatively positive. Therefore, it is judged that the steady growth policy in the “two sessions” is still expected to be strengthened, and the improvement of industry fundamentals is expected to be accelerated. We believe that steady growth is still the main line of the sector, continue to be optimistic about undervalued blue chips China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (core benefit infrastructure REITs promotion), local state-owned enterprises recommend regional leaders with high growth Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , and focus on infrastructure design China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) .
The financial support for affordable housing is increased, and the investment is expected to increase significantly this year, and the valuation of relevant high-quality leaders is expected to increase. This week, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the guidance on bank insurance institutions supporting the development of indemnificatory rental housing, focusing on providing financial support for the construction and operation of indemnificatory rental housing: 1) in terms of financial institutions, CDB is required to increase medium and long-term credit support, support commercial banks to provide professional and diversified financial services, and guide insurance funds to provide long-term funds, It also supports the compliance participation of trust and other non bank institutions, and defines the source of funds for financial support of affordable housing; 2) In terms of financial products, encourage the provision of diversified financial products and services, including long-term loans, mortgage and pledge loans, infrastructure REITs, corporate bonds, corporate bonds and other forms, so that financial institutions can flexibly provide financial support for affordable housing through multiple channels; 3) In terms of quota management, it is emphasized that the relevant loans issued by banking financial institutions to affordable rental housing projects holding the certificate of approval of affordable rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, which reflects the policy care of the policy for the field of affordable rental housing, and not only helps to mobilize the enthusiasm of commercial banks to issue loans, At the same time, it also helps the real estate chain to improve the capital environment and increase investment willingness. We believe that guaranteeing housing construction can stabilize investment in the real estate industry in the short term, which is expected to become one of the important directions of steady growth this year. In the long term, it is also an important focus for realizing the two strategies of “housing without speculation” and “common prosperity”. The follow-up financial and credit resources are expected to focus on tilt, and the industry is expected to show excellent growth in the medium and long term. According to our calculation, about 1.94 million affordable housing units will be built and started in 2022, which is expected to realize the construction and installation investment of about 240 billion yuan, accounting for about 2% of the real estate construction and installation investment. The significant acceleration of affordable housing investment is expected to partially offset the downward pressure of real estate investment in the whole year, and the valuation of high-quality leaders related to affordable housing is expected to rise. Focus on recommending China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) international leader in affordable housing construction, leader in affordable housing design Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , leader in third-party evaluation of affordable housing Shenzhen Ridge Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd(300977) .
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development vigorously promotes the high-quality development of the construction industry and is optimistic about the growth potential of building transformation and upgrading and heating energy saving. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office this week, Minister Wang Menghui said that this year, we will vigorously increase the supply of affordable housing, vigorously develop prefabricated buildings, promote the transformation of old urban communities, promote major projects of aging, renewal and transformation of urban pipelines such as gas, and promote the construction of digital, networked and intelligent new urban infrastructure. In terms of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry, it is proposed that the next step will be to carry out intelligent construction pilot demonstration in some cities, accelerate the promotion of building information model technology, and strive to achieve more than 30% of new prefabricated buildings by 2025; At the same time, we should vigorously develop green buildings, accelerate the energy-saving transformation of existing buildings, and promote the application of renewable energy in buildings according to local conditions. Industrialization and greening are important trends in the development of the current construction industry. Their development not only drives the development of prefabricated PC, steel structure, bapv / BIPV and other components (components) industries, but also drives the rise of subdivided fields such as intelligent construction, Bim and building energy conservation. It is expected that prefabricated buildings and green buildings will still be the high prosperity direction of the construction sector in the medium and long term. It is mainly recommended that the leaders of steel structure engineering Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) Steel structure manufacturing leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , assembly and BIM design leader Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , microgrid leader Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
In terms of reconstruction of old residential areas and urban renewal, in 2021, China started to transform 55600 old urban residential areas, benefiting 9.65 million households, exceeding the target at the beginning of the year. In 2022, China will strive to start to transform about 20000 kilometers of gas pipelines with potential safety hazards, and will orderly promote the transformation of urban water supply, drainage, heating pipe networks and other fields. Under the background of the management’s special instruction that the pipeline transformation and construction must be taken as an important infrastructure project in the 14th five year plan, the State Council recently issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, which focused on “promoting the elimination of coal-fired boilers and loose coal within the coverage of heating pipe network”, “fully tapping the heating potential” and promoting the industrial park The energy-saving transformation of heating facilities and equipment such as public institutions is expected to accelerate the release of the demand of the follow-up heating and energy-saving industry. It is recommended that China’s leading one-stop heating and energy-saving enterprise Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) .
Investment suggestions: while the current policy continues to increase, steady growth is still the main line of the sector and continues to be optimistic: 1) undervalued blue chips: focus on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , and leading infrastructure design China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) ; 2) High growth local state-owned enterprises: recommend Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ; 3) Business elasticity direction: a) affordable housing: with the vigorous promotion of policies, the demand of the industry is expected to increase significantly. China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) international, Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Shenzhen Ridge Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd(300977) ; b) Steel structure: recommend Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ; c) New power system: microgrid leader Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) ; d) Urban pipe network: the demand for energy-saving transformation of urban heat supply network is expected to accelerate, and the leader of heating energy-saving is recommended Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) .
Risk tips: the risk of policy promotion is less than expected, the risk of epidemic impact is more than expected, the risk of accounts receivable, overseas business risk, etc
