Precious metals: the speculation between Ukraine and Russia peaked, and the gold price retook some of the increase, and the CPI is expected to support the upward gold price. Gold: ① risk aversion: the short-term situation in Ukraine determines the upward elasticity of gold, and it is difficult for gold to see a sharp decline driven by risk aversion. However, the rise of gold caused by political conflict is mostly short-term catalysis and does not have long-term logic. As Europe and the United States announced that the sanctions against Russia were weaker than the market expectation, the market speculation was significantly cooled, and the gold rose and fell. It is expected that the subsequent risk aversion will weaken the guidance of the gold price. ② Inflation expectation: long term focus on the anti inflation attribute of gold reflected in the US real interest rate and the trend of inflation expectation. In the short term, although the US interest rate hike is approaching, due to the continuous higher than expected rise of us CPI and the recent large rise represented by crude oil, the US inflation level is expected to continue to rise in the early stage of the market short-term game interest rate hike, and the short-term sentiment of gold is optimistic. Focus on the US interest rate hike policy and CPI performance in rhythm. The long-term upward pressure on gold still lies in the rise of real interest rates after the US interest rate hike is implemented, and long-term inflation will be restrained. Compared with the landing of interest rate increase, the real turn down of CPI is the clear signal of gold turning empty.
Base metals: the situation in Ukraine and Russia disturbs the sentiment of the metal market, and the fundamentals of copper and aluminum are divided. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, Russia is an important producer of crude oil and metals. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia pushed up the supply of bulk commodities, reduced risks, and pushed up the price of energy costs. LME aluminum and nickel led the rise during the week. Copper prices rose weakly as China’s accumulated reserves exceeded expectations after the festival; ② In terms of supply, Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, said that the copper output in 2022 is expected to maintain the same level as that in 2021, and its mineral copper output in 2021 is 1.618 million tons Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) announcement said that it is planned to implement capacity upgrading and technical transformation for the existing facilities of kamoa kakura copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo within one year. After the completion of stable production, the annual copper output will reach more than 450000 tons (the total capacity of phase I and phase II was originally planned to be 400000 tons), becoming the fourth largest copper producing mine in the world. Looking at the global copper mine pattern, traditional mining enterprises have insufficient capital expenditure investment in the past two years, and the core increment of copper mine in 2022 will focus on the change of new mines; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper Inventory (China social Treasury (including SHFE) + bonded + LME + Comex exchange) was 614200 tons, up from 40500 tons last week. Among them, China’s social inventory increased by 11100 tons, the bonded area increased by 31000 tons, LME inventory increased by 0800 tons, Comex copper decreased by 24000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period increased by 22700 tons. At present, the overall consumption recovery of copper downstream is relatively slow. The orders of wire, cable and enamelled wire enterprises downstream of the core power sector have not yet returned to the same period of previous years. The copper rod processing fee decreased by 90 yuan / ton to 630 yuan / ton within the week. The cumulative storage of China’s SHFE in the three weeks after the festival reached 120000 tons, far exceeding the same period of previous years. With the continuous accumulation of inventory, the spot market price will be converted to the discount quotation for futures within the next week, and the foreign trade price will be reduced accordingly. Under the reality of weak consumption, the logic of strong expectation is loose, and the copper price is under pressure in the short term. (2) Aluminum: ① inventory: 17900 to 1182700 tons were removed from the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 26100 tons of LME inventory. China’s social Treasury accumulated 49500 to 1104600 tons, with a significant decline in the accumulation rate and a decrease of 50300 tons compared with the same period last year; ② Supply: electrolytic aluminum production resumed from 180000 tons to 38.34 million tons this week, and there are still 1.08 million tons of production capacity to be restored. In addition, according to IAI statistics, in January 2022, global aluminum production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to 5.513 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.9%, mainly due to the European energy crisis and China’s lower than expected resumption of production. Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and many countries have announced plans to impose sanctions on Russia, which may affect Russia’s export volume. In addition, Germany announced the suspension of Beixi No. 2 natural gas project, adding to the conflict between Russia and Europe, the European energy crisis may continue, corresponding to the risk of reduction and expansion of overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In addition, as the current sharp premium of overseas aluminum leads to the closure of the import window, the recovery of China’s aluminum inventory cannot rely on the improvement of imported aluminum, and the accumulation trend may continue to weaken; ③ Demand: from February 20, some enterprises with limited production in the early stage of the eastern Olympic Games in the north have resumed production one after another, and the recovery of downstream construction has driven the increase of electrolytic aluminum demand. At the same time, in the overseas high premium market, the demand for export orders of aluminum processed products may increase significantly, and the growth of downstream orders may increase significantly. Under the environment of difficult recovery of supply outside China, continuous recovery of demand, low inventory and significant premium of overseas aluminum price, China’s aluminum price may follow up. Suggestions and concerns are suggested to focus on the following: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\.
Energy metals: demand recovered rapidly after the festival, and the price of cobalt and lithium continued to rise. (1) Lithium: (1) lithium: the new energy market continues to boom, and the gap between supply and demand cannot be filled in the short term. During the week, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 40000 yuan / ton to 485400 yuan / ton, close to 500000 yuan. From February to March, enterprises still need to replenish their stock, and the gap between supply and demand cannot be filled in the short term, and the price may continue to rise; (2) Nickel: nickel sulfate rose 0.59% to 42800 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel rose slightly to 407.04 million yuan / ton. The high price difference profit may stimulate more ferronickel to switch to high matte production capacity. At present, there is still a small gap in the upstream raw materials of nickel sulfate. The price of nickel sulfate continued to rise under low inventory; (3) Cobalt: China’s Electrolytic Cobalt increased by 2.68% to 556400 yuan / ton, and cobalt sulfate increased by 3.10% to 116500 yuan / ton. The rapid recovery of new energy demand led to the simultaneous and rapid rise of cobalt and lithium, and the profit of cobalt sulfate processing increased by 9.7% to 63500 yuan / ton within the week. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following following: followingthe following of the following: \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc
