Market Review
The light industry manufacturing industry index fell 0.63% this week, outperforming the market by 1.04pct; The paper sub sector rose 2.56%, outperforming the market by 4.23pct. This week, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.67%, and the light industry manufacturing (Shenwan) index fell by 0.63%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.04pct, ranking 15th among 28 Shenwan industries; In the secondary industry, the paper sub sector rose 2.56%, outperforming the market by 4.23pct. This week, the four major sub sectors of light industry were papermaking, packaging and printing, furniture and entertainment products in order of increase from large to small. Among them, papermaking rose 2.56% this week, while packaging and printing, furniture and entertainment products fell 0.66%, 1.86% and 2.72% this week.
Industrial chain data tracking
In terms of raw materials, the factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) increased by 18 yuan / ton, and the price of foreign waste increased by 3-10 dollars / ton; The external price of wood pulp increased by 45-50 US dollars / ton, and the spot price increased; The price of dissolved slurry remains stable. (1) The factory price (excluding this week’s waste tax) rises by 18 yuan; The CIF price of OCC Southeast Asia main port of American waste, European waste and Japanese waste increased by US $3-10 / ton; (2) The quotation of hardwood pulp and coniferous wood pulp increased by US $45 / ton and US $50 / ton respectively; The spot price of hardwood pulp increased by 226 yuan / ton, and the spot price of coniferous wood pulp increased by 165 yuan / ton; In late January 2022, the wood pulp inventory of China’s three major ports totaled 1.5 million tons, down 3.8% month on month; (3) The price of dissolved pulp remained stable this week.
This week, the prices of double offset paper and white cardboard increased, the price of coated paper remained stable, and the price of box board paper fell. According to the average market price of finished paper including tax according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the price of double offset paper increased by 45 yuan / ton this week, the price of coated paper remained stable, and the price of white cardboard increased by 62 yuan / ton; The average ex factory price of carton board fell by 14 yuan / ton.
This week, the profit of wood pulp paper products differentiated, and the profit of waste paper paper products increased slightly. The profit level is characterized by the price difference between finished paper and raw materials. This week, the profit of wood pulp paper products is differentiated. The large double offset paper enterprises increased by about 44 yuan / ton and the small paper enterprises decreased by about 81 yuan / ton; Coated paper large paper enterprises increased by about 4 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 119 yuan / ton; White cardboard large paper enterprises increased by about 56 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 12 yuan / ton; The profit of waste paper products increased by about 4-24 yuan / ton compared with last week.
In December 2021, the inventory of finished products of machine-made paper and paperboard increased by 2.4% month on month. (1) The cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard from January to December 2021 was 135.84 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; (2) After excluding the influence of price factors, the finished product inventory (estimated value) of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry increased by 17.2% year-on-year and 2.4% month on month in December 2021; (3) In terms of import volume of paper and paperboard, from January to December 2021, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 3.7%; In terms of export volume, the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to December was 9.1%.
Risk tips
The risk that macroeconomic growth slows down and terminal demand declines more than expected; Risk that the promotion of overseas new projects fails to meet expectations
