Key changes this week (022125): ① on the 21st, the third round of price adjustment of clinker along the river increased by 20 yuan / ton. ② Since February 21, the four major banks have simultaneously lowered the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou, including the interest rates of the first and second homes by 20bp; The down payment in Chenzhou, Hunan fell to 20%. ③ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) release performance express. ④ On February 22, Document No. 1 "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on doing a good job in the key work of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization in 2022" was issued. ⑤ Upstream raw materials fluctuate greatly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. ⑥ The national development and Reform Commission issued a notice calling for improving the price formation mechanism of the coal market, and the commodity futures market generally fell. ⑦ The Ministry of transport proposed to "expand effective investment in transportation". ⑧ The Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to "vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing".
Core view:
(1) we continue to be optimistic about the TOC retail model. In some regions, the down payment ratio is reduced, the positive signal on the demand side is released, the trend of rigid demand and back-end decoration is better, and the superposition of hardcover slows down. We continue to be optimistic about the retail and distribution model, paying attention to cash flow and profit margin. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit and concentric circle speed-up; Focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] at the C-end.
(2) the third round of price increase of cement clinker: on the 21st, the third round of price increase of clinker along the Yangtze River Delta, with a range of 20 yuan / ton, was mainly due to the increase in the price of imported clinker from Vietnam, which provided room for the increase in the price of clinker in China, and after the Spring Festival, various enterprises continued to carry out peak shifting production or kiln shutdown maintenance, resulting in rapid digestion of clinker inventory, and the rise in coal price promoted the rise of clinker cost, And then transmitted to the price side. This year's clinker price rise is ahead of time, and the future cement rise is expected to be strong.
(3) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. In January, social finance greatly exceeded expectations, and there was no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1 economy. Growth + cycle focus on the water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus on [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], stability + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ].
(4): from the end of 21q4 policy to the end of 22q1 market, the real estate chain may be more optimistic. The introduction of the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds and the 5-year LPR reduction are conducive to the restoration of market confidence. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. We judge that we are expected to see marginal improvements in front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. We believe that the real estate chain may be more optimistic. Combined with the volume of social finance, the valuation directly reflects the expectation, and will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At the current time point, the second-line leaders have greater flexibility in performance repair, and the first-line leaders have stronger sustainability. They pay attention to the significant improvement of the external environment of the real estate chain, the repair of performance expectations, and the baptism of the bottom. At the same time, the concentration has increased, and the voice of large downstream real estate developers has been weakened accordingly. The core of the core '''includes a [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\5 ]. In 2021, a number of enterprises have fully accrued and fully released the impairment risk. It is expected to be light in 2022.
(5) glass inventory rose and price rise slowed down. The total amount of original films this week was 41.24 million weight boxes, an increase of 8.24% over last week. It is suggested to closely follow up the capital repair, completion demand recovery and cost support of the real estate chain, focusing on the target [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ].
(6) new materials throughout the year: carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass, medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
