Key investment points:
In 2022, the economic work will be stable. Under the policy requirements of increasing the cross cycle regulation of macro policies, moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure investment, coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary policies, infrastructure has become the main focus of steady growth. The policy margin of the real estate industry continues to improve, or is approaching the end of the policy, superimposing structural opportunities such as affordable housing, which is optimistic about the gradual repair of the sector. Give us “industry” rating.
In January 2022, the growth rate of credit cooperatives across the country ushered in an inflection point and achieved growth. In January, the PMI of newly signed orders in the construction industry recorded 53.3, maintaining the momentum of prosperity for four consecutive months, indicating that the requirements of cross cycle adjustment of macro policies and early fiscal force have been gradually implemented. In January, 484.4 billion yuan of special bonds of local governments were added, specifically invested in the infrastructure of municipal and industrial parks of 165355 billion yuan, transportation infrastructure of 105518 billion yuan, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy of 44.061 billion yuan, energy and urban and rural cold chain logistics infrastructure of 11.533 billion yuan, totaling 326467 billion yuan, accounting for 34%, 22%, 9% and 2% respectively. The investment in the whole infrastructure sector accounted for 67% of the new special bonds. This is consistent with the key investment direction of the advance approval of 1.46 trillion special bonds by the Ministry of finance. It is expected to form a physical workload from March to April, which will form a practical support for steady growth. Focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
In terms of real estate, while the industrial policies continue to improve, the central government and all localities have centrally issued policies or work requirements to support indemnificatory rental housing, forming structural opportunities in the construction industry. Last week, after the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the concentration management of real estate loans, on February 25, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the guidance on bank insurance institutions supporting the development of affordable rental housing to promote the implementation of supporting measures related to affordable rental housing as soon as possible. Recently, the Department of housing and urban rural development of Sichuan Province issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing, proposing that the province will strive to raise 78000 affordable rental housing units this year and issue 7770 new affordable rental housing rental subsidies. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the province will strive to raise 340000 affordable rental housing units, Among them, Chengdu raised 300000 sets (rooms). Focus on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , which has developed rapidly in real estate business.
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. Recommend Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , focus on Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
BIPV is an important development direction of green buildings. The 14th five year plan clearly proposes to accelerate the development of non fossil energy, adhere to both centralized and distributed development, and vigorously improve the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings. The central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. The aging trend of construction workers is obvious, and the labor cost is also increasing. Prefabricated buildings have obvious advantages over traditional cast-in-place buildings in terms of labor cost. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , and Yuanda residential workers.
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The implementation of policies in the real estate industry is less than expected; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
