This week's view: local policies will continue to be fine tuned this week to stabilize the development of the property market. Among them, China Central Television reported that the six major banks cut the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou; At the same time, Shanghai Jinshan District provides subsidies for renting and buying houses for talents, and Dongguan raises the liquidity coefficient of provident fund loans and releases the loan amount. This week, the Bank Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued a document to support the development of indemnificatory rental housing, help supply growth and accelerate the pace from broadening capital sources and adjusting management requirements. In terms of investment suggestions, considering that the short-term industry fundamentals are still under pressure and the policy game space is still, it is expected to drive the continuous repair of sector valuation; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of some real estate enterprises and M & A integration within real estate enterprises, the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped, and real estate enterprises with financing, control and product advantages are expected to stand out. In terms of development, focus on the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , etc. with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages. In terms of diversified business, the valuation of the property management sector is at a historical low, the performance is growing steadily, and the cost performance continues to highlight. It is optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, such as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, and commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng business.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Ministry of housing and urban rural development: promote high-quality development of housing and urban rural construction; 2) Bancassurance: support the development of indemnificatory rental housing.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover rebounded month on month and faced pressure in the follow-up. 39000 new houses were sold this week (February 19-february 25), up 1.7% month on month; 12000 second-hand houses were sold, up 12.4% month on month. The average daily turnover of new houses in February decreased by 31.3% year-on-year, 1.4pct narrower than that in January. Due to the cautious influence of supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions are expected to be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand decreased month on month. In January 2022, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 square meters decreased by 1.1pct to 76.4% month on month. 3) Inventories fell month on month and tended to decline steadily in the short term. The inventory of 16 cities was 100.82 million square meters, down 0.3% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) Land transactions rebounded, the premium rate fell, and the proportion of the first line increased. Last week, 17.01 million square meters of land supply and construction surface and 11.571 million square meters of transaction construction surface were built in Baicheng, with a month on month decrease of 22.3% and an increase of 21.4%; The transaction premium rate was 4%, down 1.1pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 18.1%, 37.2% and 44.7% respectively, with a month on month increase of 15pct, a decrease of 5.4pct and a decrease of 9.7pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 10.85 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, a decrease of 1.92 billion yuan month on month; Overseas bonds issued $340 million. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 4.05 billion yuan this week, an increase of 2.01 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 3.2% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (- 1.7%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.15 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 12.6% in recent five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north this week were China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) ; The top three net inflows of southbound funds are China overseas development, Shimao Group and Xuhui holding group.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
