Main points:
Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell – 1.1% this week to close at 345141 points; Gem means + 1.0% this week, closing at 285580 points; CSI 300 this week – 1.7%, closing at 457342 points. The real estate sector was – 3.2%, ranking 23rd among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 27.9% year-on-year and + 15.3% month on month
This week (2.18-2.24), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focus on tracking is about 2.6 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 27.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.3%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 710000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.8% and a month on month increase of – 12.8%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 1.44 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.0% and a month on month increase of + 44.9%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 450000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 49.5% and a month on month increase of + 0.7%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 47.2% year-on-year and + 17.8% month on month
This week (2.18-2.24), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focus on tracking is about 790000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.2% and a month on month increase of + 17.8%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 310000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 37.2% and a month on month increase of + 22.0%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 310000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.5% and a month on month increase of + 11.2%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 180000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 46.9% and a month on month increase of + 23.2%.
Inventory cycle: new house area decreased by -0.52% in October
As of February 24, 2022, this week, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking was about 89.46 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 0.52%. The overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about October 9. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 29.73 million m3, a month on month increase of + 0.23%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 32.38 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 1.39%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.3 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 27.34 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 0.30%, and the decontamination cycle was 22.3 months.
Land market: the transaction area of Baicheng land is 14.99 million m3, the total transaction price of land is 59.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 2.10%. Last week (2.14-2.20), the number of Baicheng land supply was 325, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 18.25 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 226, and the corresponding land construction area is about 14.99 million square meters. The total land transaction price is about 59.1 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 2.10%. Among them, the land transaction and construction area of the first, second and third tier cities were 2.09 million m3, 4.31 million m3 and 8.59 million m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of + 98%, + 8% and + 16% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rate was + 4.37%, + 0.47% and + 2.60% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January. i) The year-on-year increase in the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in all line cities fell overall, and the number of cities decreased year-on-year increased. In January, the sales price of new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 4.4% year-on-year, the same as that in the previous month; Second hand housing rose 4.1% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in second tier cities increased by 2.5% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, down 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The sales price of new commercial houses in third tier cities increased by 0.5% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; Second hand housing fell 0.7% year-on-year from flat last month. In January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses decreased year-on-year, with 20 and 30 cities respectively, an increase of 3 and 4 respectively over the previous month. II) the sales price of newly-built commercial houses and second-hand houses in each line city increased or decreased month on month, and the number of cities decreased month on month. In January, the sales price of newly-built commercial houses in first tier cities increased by 0.6% month on month (MOM) from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month; Second hand housing rose 0.1% month on month, the same as last month. The sales price of newly-built commercial houses in second tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month; Second hand housing fell 0.2% month on month, 0.1 percentage points lower than last month. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in third tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively month on month, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. In January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses decreased month on month in 39 and 55 cities respectively, 11 and 8 less than the previous month.
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The regulation of wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large-scale expansion is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in early 2022, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy has become stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital has been greatly tightened.
