Market Review
In the current period (from February 21 to February 25), the CSI 300 fell 1.7% and the machinery sector rose 1.0%, ranking seventh among the 28 Shenwan industries. In terms of subdivided industries, photovoltaic equipment increased the most, up 11.3%; Construction machinery fell the most, down 3.5%.
This week’s view
The international oil price has exceeded US $100 / barrel. It is suggested to focus on oil service enterprises.
At present, the war between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated global tensions, the international crude oil price is in a high shock stage, and the Brent main contract once exceeded US $100. However, due to the fact that the US sanctions against Russia did not limit Russia’s oil and gas resources, the increase of oil price has decreased. In the future, oil prices will probably remain high, mainly because the global oil and gas industry is still in the stage of serious underinvestment. On the one hand, global capital expenditure increased slightly in 2021, but there is still a large gap compared with that before the epidemic; At the same time, since the increase in production was implemented in May last year, OPEC’s monthly actual crude oil production has been less than the planned increase in production. In addition, the slow recovery of shale oil production in the United States after the epidemic has led to the continuous rise of oil prices recently. With the progress of the monthly production increase plan, OPEC output will rise, and the remaining oil production capacity will gradually shrink. The total production capacity is expected to be 3.97 million barrels / day in 2021, and the remaining production capacity is expected to be 3.98 million barrels / day in 2021, which will be more flexible, and the supply capacity will be about 3.98 million barrels / day in 2021. Therefore, in the future, the demand for oil and gas will be stable and upward. Only by increasing capital expenditure and increasing the number of new wells can the rebalancing of oil and gas supply and demand be realized.
Investment suggestions:
We are optimistic about the expectation of increasing production under high oil prices. It is suggested to focus on Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , Sinopec Oilfield Equipment Corporation(000852) , Harbin Boshi Automation Co.Ltd(002698) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) , etc.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations, external demand fluctuations.
