Key investment points:
Market review of this week: from February 21 to February 25, 2022, SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.16% as a whole, ranking the third among all Shenwan industry indexes, losing about 2.54 percentage points to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period, showing a relatively weak performance. Among the sub sectors, only snacks, condiments, soft drinks and other alcohol sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index in the same period.
Net inflow of land stock link this week: from February 21 to February 25, 2022, land stock link had a net outflow of RMB 6.413 billion. The net outflow of food and beverage sector was 2.925 billion yuan, ranking the third in Shenwan industry.
Industry Week view: the two sessions are imminent, grasp the high certainty sector. From the content of the two sessions in recent years, some sectors in food and beverage have been involved in the two sessions. NPC and CPPCC time-honored members of the two sessions in 2021 focused on the Chinese Baijiu‘s actual situation, focusing on the protection of liquor industry heritage, the protection of intellectual property rights and intellectual property rights, and chemical additives. At the same time, some representatives and members also put forward corresponding development opinions in dairy products, nutritious food and wine. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu and liquor industry in the liquor sector will be the focus of discussion in 2022 NPC and CPPCC sessions. For the popular products sector, it is expected that representatives and members of the national two sessions in 2022 will actively propose in the development planning of dairy products sector, wine sector and key sectors. Relevant proposals are expected to optimize the industry pattern and boost end consumption. Focus on sectors with high certainty. Baijiu sector: affected by factors such as Russia and Ukraine, the Baijiu sector is relatively weak this week. Driven by the sales point, Baijiu sector head enterprises are expected to get a good start, which will catalyze the first quarter results. In the follow-up, we can grasp individual stocks with high certainty and great performance flexibility. In terms of the target, we recommend that we must focus on the high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ( Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ( Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ). In the secondary high-end liquor, we can pay attention to Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ( Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ( Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), etc; Regional liquor can focus on companies with greater recovery flexibility, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ( Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) ( Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) ), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ( Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ). Popular products: this week, companies such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) and others released their 2021 performance express. Among them, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) performed well in the fourth quarter. Affected by the epidemic situation, rising costs and other factors, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) single fourth quarter net profit attributable to parent decreased. Recently, due to the drought in Brazil and Argentina, the main soybean producing countries, the global soybean production has been reduced, which has pushed the prices of soybean and soybean meal higher, and the prices are at a relatively high level in recent five years. At present, the market demand is still weak, and the disturbing factors of mass products still exist. The market will continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement brought by the price increase of products, and grasp the high-quality sector in the industry. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) ( Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) ), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) ( Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) ), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) ( Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) ), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ( Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ( Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ( Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ), etc.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation, product price increase less than expected, channel development less than expected, intensified industry competition, food safety risk and macroeconomic downside risk.
