Zhou viewpoint: focus on recommending value targets that benefit from wide credit
The stock market volatility is increasing. At present, we mainly recommend value targets that benefit from wide credit, and the first is Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which benefits from wide credit, has obvious characteristics of value stocks and has long logic. For Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , the marginal change lies in the good trend of asset quality and roe brought by the wide credit, the improvement of the popularity of value stocks and the transformation of the company’s own business structure. The company’s long-term retail real leasing strategy and manufacturer leasing model have strong business characteristics and model barriers, and the market expectation is still large. We are also optimistic about leading undervalued securities companies with high profit certainty and insurance stocks with valuation repair opportunities on the asset side.
Securities companies: the decline in valuation reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market, and the profits of the two types of companies are still expected to lead the industry
(1) 21 new equity + mixed funds were established this week, with a scale of 9.6 billion, improved month on month and still at a low level; The average turnover of stocks rose by 1.06 trillion on Sunday. Since the beginning of the year, affected by factors such as the decline of the stock market, the failure of new development funds to meet expectations and the decline of trading volume, the market has revised down the profit growth of the securities industry, resulting in pressure on the yield of the sector. (2) At present, we are not pessimistic about the securities sector. On the one hand, the valuation of the core target has dropped significantly. At present, the valuation has reflected the relatively pessimistic expectations of the market; On the other hand, we believe that the long-term logic of wealth management still exists. The long-term logic is based on the long-term trends such as new asset management regulations, registration system, non speculation in housing and housing, aging and industry transformation. The pressure on the yield of growth stocks and partial stock funds will cause some negative feedback, but it will not change the long-term trend of residents’ wealth migration to net worth and equity assets. In addition, the favorable policies with the comprehensive registration system as the core will continue, and the growth of wealth management and institutional business is still good, driving the better profitability of the industry. (3) The main line of wealth management with high contribution of public offering profits in the sector and the profit growth of leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive advantages will be better than the industry average. China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) are recommended.
Insurance: take another step in the construction of the third pillar and accelerate the exploration of commercial endowment insurance experience
(1) on February 21, the CBRC issued the notice on expanding the pilot scope of exclusive commercial endowment insurance, expanding the pilot area of exclusive commercial endowment insurance to the whole country (previously only Chongqing and Zhejiang), and allowing endowment insurance companies to participate in the pilot, in order to further explore the development experience of commercial endowment insurance. The exclusive commercial endowment insurance product is variable annuity, which has the characteristics of flexible payment, stable income, long receiving period and receiving age from 60 years old. It is mainly aimed at the needs of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , employees of new business types and flexible employees. Since the pilot in June 2021, by the end of January 2022, there have been nearly 50000 insurance policies and a total premium of 400 million yuan. The pilot expansion has little impact on listed insurance companies in the short term, and the superposition of three pillar policies may bring imagination in the future. (2) At present, there is no sign of improvement in the insurance liability side, and the growth of property insurance is expected to exceed expectations. At present, the opportunity is mainly driven by the improvement expectation of the asset side and the trading style. The recovery of long-term interest rate and the improvement of real estate chain risk drive the expectation of asset side repair. The subject with greater flexibility on the investment side is the main line at this stage. Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has more room for asset side repair, is recommended, Recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and benefit China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Property Insurance and AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ;
Securities companies: China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China property insurance, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , AIA.
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
