Automobile cycle positioning: at present, the inventory cycle of the automobile industry is in the passive replenishment stage
The passive stock replenishment phase of the auto sector starts in May 2021, and the active stock replenishment phase of the auto sector ends.
The auto parts sector has ushered in medium-term and long-term configuration opportunities
The current cycle positioning of the auto cycle is conducive to the valuation and repair of the parts sector: the sales growth of the auto industry shows significant cyclical characteristics, and the boom is driven by the inventory cycle. The auto cycle bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2019. After the passive destocking (recovery period) in 2020 and the active restocking (overheating period) in the first half of 2021, the industry is in a passive restocking (stagflation period) at this stage. The investment characteristics of the automobile sector in the stagflation period are that the stagflation stocks within the sector make up for the rise. After experiencing the recovery period and overheating period of the industry, the parts sector is the main stagflation sector during the stagflation period. With the “normalization” of chip supply, the replenishment of the industry will drive the growth of the revenue end of the parts industry upward.
Auto parts is the main investment direction of the industry in the next round of production capacity cycle, and is expected to produce a global leading enterprise: the SUV penetration rate exceeded 10% in 2011, opening the zhugra cycle of the industry for about 10 years. In 2021, the penetration rate of electric vehicles exceeded 10%. As an important intelligent hardware, the electronic and electrical architecture of automobiles is changing from distributed to domain centralized. In the ten-year cycle, the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles has increased rapidly and is opening a new round of zhugra cycle in the industry. The first half of electrification has created a number of global leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and the second half of intellectualization is expected to create a new batch of global auto parts leading enterprises in the next 10 years. The auto parts sector is the main investment direction of the production capacity cycle in the next 10 years.
How to select Auto Parts Companies: we believe that the trend of automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to three domains will become an important stock selection clue for auto parts. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , and the penetration rate of wire controlled chassis in the automatic driving domain is expected to accelerate in the next round of vehicle inventory cycle. Recommend the faucets Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , and pay attention to Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Investment advice
At the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry has determined to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired after the recovery period, with a significant premium compared with the parts sector. Before confirming the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle, there is only band opportunity. The automobile sector generates sub industries in rotation, and the parts sector is expected to become the main line of optimal allocation.
For passenger cars, it is suggested to pay attention to Geely motors, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; The parts section recommends companies related to chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (covered by communication group), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs have restored the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global chip shortage restricts the supply of cars more than expected, resulting in lower sales than expected
