Weekly gathering of scientific and technological views (Part 2)
1) high precision weapons have the advantages of long-range precision strike and avoiding civilian damage as far as possible. They are the vanguard of the Russian special military operation. According to CNR, the application of Russian precision guided weapons in the Russian Ukrainian conflict significantly weakened the command system, Navy, air force and air defense capabilities of Ukraine’s military center in the early stage, laying the foundation for the follow-up ground forces. The strategic position of precision strike weapons is highlighted in the top-level planning document of Russian weapons and equipment “national weapons and equipment development plan 2027”. Among them, kh101 and kh22, which focus on the development and upgrading, are the first in this operation, and have the characteristics of strong anti electromagnetic interference ability and strong penetration ability after installing electronic warfare system.
High precision guided weapons can significantly improve combat effectiveness, and their hit probability is significantly higher than that of non guided weapons. Due to the low probability of damage to innocent civilians, they can control the risk within the minimum error range in local geographical conflicts. According to relevant data, the use of high-precision guided weapons has increased from 0.2% in Vietnam War, 7.6% in Gulf War, 56% in Afghanistan war and 68.3% in Iraq war to more than 90% in Libya war in 2011.
2) there are many guidance technologies for high-precision guidance weapons, and the development of multi-mode composite guidance is the main trend. At present, high-precision laser guidance, radar guidance, phased array guidance and other technologies. The satellite navigation system can realize global, continuous and all-weather, and has the ability of precise three-dimensional navigation and positioning, mainly attacking fixed targets on the ground. Inertial navigation system has strong anti-interference ability. Because it does not radiate electromagnetic wave and has strong concealment, it is usually combined with GPS + ins. Laser guidance can realize multi-target selective attack with high guidance accuracy. A laser seeker meets the needs of multi guidance weapons and has strong trafficability, but it needs to be combined with other guidance methods due to bad weather and other factors. Infrared guidance is the main guidance mode in the early stage of modern war. Its advantages are fast scanning rate, high sensitivity and strong target recognition ability.
3) terminal guidance is the key technology of precision guided weapons, and millimeter wave active phased array radar has obvious advantages. The key advantage of short-range radar guidance is that it has good stealth target tracking ability in the middle and end range. Phased array radar guidance usually adopts millimeter wave band, and active phased array radar is the preferred technology in phased array radar. Many types of foreign air-to-air missiles, including the kh-101 used by the Russian army in this operation, mostly use the active phased array radar as the terminal guidance means. It has the advantages of long detection distance, high guidance accuracy, strong anti-jamming ability, multi-target detection, small volume and high reliability. It mainly attacks moving targets.
Investment advice
The intensification of global inflation, the shortage of semiconductor supply chain and the consequences of swift sanctions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased the uncertainty of the global political and financial market, which will suppress the risk appetite of the global market in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of world multilateralism may be further destroyed, the new Cold War mentality will rise, the external environment facing China will be more complex, and the importance of national defense modernization will be increased. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine mainly affects the supply pattern of oil and gas, grain, metal minerals and industrial gas, and will not directly affect the electronic communication manufacturing industry. However, it should be noted that the decline of market risk appetite suppresses the valuation. We suggest to adopt the defensive + deterministic allocation strategy. There may be a theme market in the short-term military information industry sector, and the allocation of the communication sector will be increased after the marginal improvement of market risk preference. It is suggested to focus on three main lines:
1) operators have defensive + absolutely profitable allocation value. The penetration of 5g and Gigabit broadband dividends continues, and the ARPU value of the operator C terminal stabilizes and rebounds, while the B terminal benefits from the reshaping of IDC supply side pattern and the improvement of industrial internet income brought by the digital economy. The fundamentals continue to improve. It is suggested to focus on China Mobile and China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) .
2) the triple boom resonance of 5g + optical fiber broadband investment + cloud manufacturer data center investment of North American telecom operators, the strong delivery capacity of China’s communication equipment manufacturing industry, the cost performance brought by the scale advantage and the long-term cooperative relationship of mainstream overseas equipment manufacturers have helped the high boom of export communication mainline orders. 5g and broadband industry chain suggest paying attention to Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Shenzhen Gongjin Electronics Co.Ltd(603118) , etc; It is recommended to pay attention to Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) , Broadex Technologies Co.Ltd(300548) , Cig Shanghai Co.Ltd(603083) ; Internet of things modules and terminals are recommended to focus on Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) , Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) , Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) , etc.
3) the conflict between Russia and Ukraine highlights the effectiveness of high-level C4ISR technology in modern war, and the use scenario of high-precision guided weapons is clear. As patrols with ammunition and live fire exercises become routine, a number of advanced precision guided main combat equipment have entered an accelerated and large-scale period. Among them is the proposal for a satellite plus inertial navigation. Among them, the proposal for a satellite plus ins. Among them, the proposed focus is to focus attention on Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\zhenleitechnology, Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) Guobo Electronics (Science and technology innovation board application), etc.
Risk tips
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasted longer than expected. Russia was affected by Western sanctions, the stability of the global financial system was affected, the Sino US science and technology trade friction affected the stability of the supply chain, and the construction of national defense informatization was less than expected.
