Key investment points
Many cities reduced the down payment ratio to 20%. On February 17, Heze City, Shandong Province lowered the down payment ratio of individual housing loans to home buyers without housing and loans from the previous minimum of 30% to the minimum of 20% from Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) four major banks. After the “first shot” in Heze, Shandong Province, according to incomplete statistics, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, Chongqing City, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, Zigong City, Sichuan Province, Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Beihai city all lowered the down payment ratio to 20%. The down payment ratio released a strong signal of substantive policy easing, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future. It is worth noting that the cities that have introduced the policy of reducing the down payment ratio are all non “purchase restriction” cities, and the sales decline is relatively serious, and the house price is not high. Under the review constraint of “no house, no loan”, although the policy of reducing the down payment ratio is expected to bring about marginal improvement on the demand side, it is still difficult to reverse the downward trend of the market in the short term, and it is still necessary to increase the strength and scope of the policy in the follow-up.
Multi City mortgage interest rates were lowered and the speed of mortgage lending was accelerated. In February, the loan interest rates of the first and second homes decreased by 9 basis points month on month, the largest monthly decline since 2019. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, 87 of the 103 key cities it monitored in February had a month on month decline in the mainstream interest rate of housing loans, an increase of 28 compared with the previous month, and there was no increase in the interest rate. Among them, the housing loan interest rate in Beijing and Shanghai fell for the first time since the middle of 2020, and the first set of interest rates in Zhongshan, Hohhot and Huizhou fell sharply, reaching 30 basis points. In terms of lending speed, the average lending cycle in February was 38 days, 12 days shorter than the previous month, and nearly 40% of cities had a lending cycle of less than one month. On the one hand, the reduction of mortgage interest rate can better support the reasonable demand for house purchase and reverse the expectation of house price decline, so as to stimulate the increase of demand and promote the rise of the real estate market; On the other hand, at present, the first and second sets of interest rates have a large space compared with the lowest point of last year, and it is expected that there may still be a downward trend in the future.
The performance of the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing has warmed up slightly. From February 16 to 17, Beijing completed the centralized supply of the first batch of land, launched 18 residential plots, 17 transactions and 1 Flow auction. The total area of land supply was 1.78 million square meters, the construction area was 1.7 million square meters, and the total transaction amount was 48.02 billion yuan. The number of transactions increased by 7 cases month on month, the construction area of transactions increased by 86% month on month, and the transaction amount increased by 73% month on month. The premium rate increased month on month, with 9 plots traded at the reserve price and 3 plots traded at the maximum price. The average premium rate was 4.5% and increased by 3.5% month on month. State owned enterprises are the main force of land acquisition, and half of the top ten real estate enterprises take land. More than 20 real estate enterprises participated in the local auction, of which Greentown took three plots with a total transaction amount of 9.84 billion yuan, becoming the biggest winner in the local auction. China shipping and China Resources also won two plots respectively. Poly and Jindi also won two plots in the form of a consortium. Five of the top 10 real estate enterprises took land in Beijing this time.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Oct a, China Resources Land, Longhu group, Vanke A, Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Baolong business, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
