Education industry
China’s education index rose or fell – 4.01% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses: Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) (+ 7.79%), Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) (+ 5.39%), Guangzheng Education (- 17.92%), gaotu group (- 16.51%), Newcapec Electronics Co.Ltd(300248) (- 13.97%), tal (- 13.13%) and Netdragon (- 12.70%).
Viewpoint: 1) on the whole, the education industry still maintains a cautious attitude, and the regulatory policies for education are still introduced one after another (including the recent regulation for high school training). The opportunities mainly come from the individual stock level, mainly the dilemma reversal brought by the transformation. 2) It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. K9 discipline business was stripped off on December 31, and the negative factors were cleared. We believe that the company’s resources are expected to tilt towards university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting. The process of new business from 0 to 1 is worthy of attention. The bottom logic lies in the brand, human resources Material resources and other factors remain strong.
Wine travel catering
This week, the hotel catering and leisure (Changjiang) / Consumer Service HK (CITIC) index rose or fell by – 4.91% / – 8.73%. Stocks with large gains and losses: Haichang Ocean Park (+ 8.78%), Yihai International (- 15.80%), Naixue tea (- 14.77%), one-way travel (- 13.04%), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (- 11.46%), Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) (- 10.77%).
Viewpoint: 1) the epidemic broke out in Wuhan, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places, and the travel restrictions dragged down the recovery expectation of liquor tourism, and the sector weakened as a whole this week. 2) On the one hand, with the increase of vaccination rate and the listing of covid-19 specific drugs, epidemic prevention and control is expected to usher in an inflection point; On the other hand, the offline consumption industry is supported by phased tax relief, partial social security fee deferment and other policies, and the wine, tourism and catering industry is expected to continue to usher in the improvement of business data.
Beauty care
The beauty care (Shenwan) index rose or fell by + 1.08% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses: Hangzhou Nbond Nowovens Co.Ltd(603238) (+ 9.18%), Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (+ 6.94%), Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) (+ 5.14%), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (- 7.07%), Perfect Group Corp.Ltd(603059) (- 5.70%).
Viewpoint: 1) from the perspective of the industry as a whole, with the improvement of consumers’ recognition of domestic products and the strength of domestic cosmetics products, the domestic cosmetics industry still has high growth. 2) At present, the cosmetics and medical beauty industry has entered the era of strict supervision, the industry differentiation will be further intensified, and the leading brands are expected to further consolidate their head advantages.
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , up or down – 3.95% this week. Viewpoint: 1) according to the expectation of the company’s third quarterly report, the annual performance is expected to be more than 6 billion, and the performance is relatively stable. 2021 is a “small year” for the industry and the company’s business (the original customers in education and other industries are damaged), and 2022 is expected to cross the industry cycle (price rise is determined & driven by consumer goods, and the company’s business performance is expected to be significantly better than other media channels); 2) Focus’s business model and demand trend are still strong. We firmly believe that the future of consumer brands is the future of focus and continue to firmly recommend. The PE valuation in 2022 is less than 20 times and maintain “strong recommendation”.
New Oriental online, up or down – 7.36% this week. Viewpoint: 1) negative clearing of policy & business operation; 2) University adult business is expected to rebound strongly; 3) Both institutional business and live delivery are new businesses from 0 to 1; 4) New Oriental’s human and material resources are still strong, the group’s book cash exceeds 30 billion, and the core talent team led by Yu Minhong is still growing. New Oriental online, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, has undertaken many strategic transformation directions of the group. It is suggested to actively focus on transformation opportunities.
Ctrip group – s, up or down – 10.65% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious, China’s tourism and business travel are blocked, and the market of the whole tourism and hotel industry is depressed; 2) In the medium and long term, the epidemic will eventually pass. As a leader in the industry, Ctrip has no essential business model damage; 3) Travel abroad is still Ctrip’s biggest long-term logic. OTA leader & Chinese people’s heavy service demand has extremely high barriers, and maintain “recommendation”.
Huazhu group – s, up or down – 7.99% this week. Viewpoint: 1) repeated short-term epidemic situation and fluctuation of business data; 2) However, in the post epidemic era, the expectation of business recovery of the wine and tourism industry is strong, and the industry is expected to usher in a continuous valuation and repair market, and the leader deserves more attention; 3) We are optimistic about the chain and concentration trend of hotel leaders and maintain “recommendation”.
The same hunting employment increased or decreased by – 1.96% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the long-term growth rate of revenue is 20% +, 40% + for four consecutive quarters, and CAGR is 30% in the next three years; 2) Robust hrsaas model, 2b renewal rate of 80% +, Ka renewal rate of 90% +; 3) At present, the commercialization rate is only about 7%. It is estimated that there will be 1 million registered enterprises and 70000 paying enterprises in 2021; 4) In 2020, the ARPU of b-end was 31300 yuan, and the CAGR (20172020) was 16.1%, which continued to grow. Maintain “recommended”.
Risk tips: 1) policy changes; 2) Repeated outbreaks; 3) Impact of emergencies, etc.
