Main points:
Banking stocks: the industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 3.73%, 1.11% and 3.47% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 26th, 21st and 2nd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the share prices of listed banks generally fell Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) share prices fell by – 6.61%, – 5.86% and – 5.67% respectively. Monthly, the stock prices of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) rose by 5.89%, 4.27% and 3.25% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply and rising interest rate in inter-bank market
The total amount of money put in this week was 810 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 50 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 760 billion yuan, an increase of 1010 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has achieved a net return of 90 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate increased.
On February 25, dr001 was 2.26%, an increase of 10bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.53%, up 38bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.24%, up 7bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.34%, up 2bps from last Friday.
The issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit increased
This week, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit increased. On February 25, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.26%, 2.46% and 2.61% respectively, with changes of + 8bps, + 3bps and + 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China US Treasury bonds narrowed
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds increased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On February 25, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.02% and 2.78% respectively, with changes of + 5bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.75%, down 7bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread narrowed. On February 25, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.13% and 1.97% respectively, with changes of + 10bps and + 5bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.84%, down 5bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased and the yield of tips decreased
(1) on February 24, the US guaranteed overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) On February 25, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.93%, an increase of 15bps compared with last Friday; (3) On February 25, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.57%, down 8bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
Influenced by the style rotation and the international situation, the bank stock index fell this month. In early March, listed banks will publish annual reports one after another, and we expect to catalyze the rise of share prices. Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
