Energy storage:
1. The policy continues to catalyze, and the installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to rise. In July 2021, the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage pointed out that the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30GW by 2025; As of January 2022, according to the statistics of Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) energy storage industry technology alliance, the energy storage planning of Qinghai, Shandong, Hunan, Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia provinces and China Southern Power Grid has reached 39gw, which is higher than the national target of 30GW; According to the prediction of the white paper 2021 on energy storage industry research, the scale of China's energy storage market will reach 35.5gw in the conservative scenario and 55.9gw in the ideal scenario in 2025; On February 23, 2022, Xin Baoan, the director of the State Grid, proposed to increase the electrochemical energy storage in the company's business area from 3gw to 100gw by 2030. We believe that in the context of double carbon, more energy storage policies are expected to be implemented in 2022, further straighten out the business model of energy storage and accelerate the development of energy storage industry.
2. Diversified development of energy storage technology, and various energy storage methods will bloom. The requirements in the field of energy storage cover multiple time scales: including second and minute application requirements for load tracking, system frequency modulation, inertia support, slope climbing, reactive power support and mechanical energy recovery, and medium and long-term application requirements for new energy consumption and system peak shaving. In addition to the relatively mature lithium-ion battery energy storage technology, we still need to pay attention to various energy storage methods such as liquid flow battery, compressed air, sodium ion battery, super capacitor, high-efficiency heat storage and hydrogen energy storage.
3. Valuation: the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range, and the layout value is prominent. Starting from the phased high at the end of November 2021, as of February 25, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 20%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on February 25, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 42 / 30 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 43 / 33 times.
4. Investment suggestion: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Since 2022, the whole market style has been biased towards the infrastructure sector, but we are concerned that there has been a certain correction in the new infrastructure sector of power grid. Why? We believe that from November to December 2021, the market's expectation of power grid investment is high, which gives the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. The current market's preference for the infrastructure sector is more due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hikes and China's steady growth. The style is more inclined to the infrastructure sector with undervalued value. As a result, the rise of traditional infrastructure and the correction of new infrastructure have emerged. At present, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid is gradually callback. We believe that corresponding to the performance in 2022, 15-25 times PE is a relatively reasonable allocation range.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
