The Ministry of housing and urban rural development stressed to maintain the stable operation of the real estate market. According to the Shanghai Securities News, banks in Chongqing, Ganzhou, Jiangxi and other places have reduced the down payment ratio of the first home loan to 20% for some qualified home buyers. According to the financial Associated Press, Zhumadian in Henan and Foshan in Guangxi also reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, which is in line with our previous judgment that more second and third tier small and medium-sized cities will follow up to relax the down payment ratio limit, and is expected to gradually expand from provident fund loans to commercial bank loans. On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a press conference to promote the high-quality development of housing and urban rural construction. At the conference, maintaining the smooth operation of the real estate market was regarded as the first of the six work contents, and proposed the need to “maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies and enhance the accuracy and coordination of regulatory policies.”
Market review: the increase ranks in the later stage, 1.65 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 3.3%, 1.65 percentage points behind the market, ranking 21st among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 28 stocks rose this week and 112 stocks fell. (this week in the report refers to the week from February 19 to February 25).
Transactions of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 3.465 million square meters, an increase of 6.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in sample first tier cities was 733000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 16.5%; The sample of second tier cities was 1942000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 20.6%; The third tier cities in the sample were 791000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 54.7%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 942000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 300000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 20.3%; The sample of second tier cities is 521000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 8.1%; The third tier cities in the sample are 122000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 0.7%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 6.741 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 37.0%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 1.94 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 44.6%; The sample of second tier cities was 3.908 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 30.1%; The sample third tier cities were 893000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 30.1%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the bond issuing interest rate of several real estate enterprises decreased. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 16 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (2.21-2.27), with a month on month increase of 5; The total issuance scale is 13.35 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 9.75 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is 3.600 billion yuan. The bond interest rates of CCF real estate (- 95bp), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (- 46bp), Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) (- 60BP), CNOOC (- 3bp), Changzhou hi tech (- 22bp), Binjiang real estate (- 11bp) and other companies decreased compared with the comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. Previously, we judged that the strength of this round of policies is still insufficient. We expect that more policies are in the way, and the main direction is to improve the capital and demand side of enterprises. Subsequently, the proportion of down payment in many places decreased, confirming the logic of demand side policy improvement. We believe that “the policy continues to be favorable – the industry fundamentals are bottomed out and are expected to recover later – the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and the gross profit margin of land acquisition will be repaired” is the main logic of 2022, which will reach the three-level resonance upward of fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, the strength of real estate tax policy is higher than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
