Key investment points:
The index of the banking sector fell gradually this week (2.21-2.25), and the sentiment was weak. As of the last trading day of this week, the price to book ratio was lf0.5% 64pb, lower than last week’s valuation and higher market heat. The average daily trading volume was 106114 billion yuan (mom + 25.8%). This week, the central bank invested 760 billion yuan in wide caliber (including 7-day reverse repurchase), and the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate remained 2.10%. The overall liquidity was at a good level; On Friday (February 25), it was announced that the weighted value of dr007 was 2.34%, close to the reverse repurchase level, with good overall liquidity and good conduction of interest rate guidance level.
At the end of February, the operation of the banking sector was weak, and the valuation of other sectors was transferred to repair. The valuation level of China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) sector retreated significantly this week, underperforming CSI 300 and deviating from the expectations at the beginning of the week, which was mainly affected by the sudden risk events in the periphery and the periodic recovery of the new energy sector. Under the background of excessive attention to the risk increase caused by the “Russia Ukraine conflict” this week, the periodic boom caused by the rapid price expectation in the fields of precious metals, energy and nonferrous metals increased. In addition, Under the background of high new energy positions of major institutions, the moderate rebound brought by the sharp decline in the early stage has become two important points for absorbing funds and concerns. From the medium and long-term perspective, we believe that the logic of improving the valuation of the banking sector remains unchanged. At present, the valuation level of the banking sector is still at the bottom of the historical valuation level, with excellent asset quality, good macro liquidity, good profit expectation of the whole industry, and the improvement of the valuation level is expected. It is recommended to pay active attention.
The guidance on indemnificatory leasing has been strengthened to help optimize the management of housing loan concentration. On February 25, the official website of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the guiding opinions on bank insurance institutions supporting the development of indemnificatory rental housing and answered reporters’ questions. The actual time of issuing the opinions was February 16. The main contents of the opinions were to require all kinds of bank insurance financial institutions to give full play to their institutional advantages and grasp the characteristics of indemnificatory financing needs, Provide targeted financial products and services, expand bank credit and product service support, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. The opinion points out that the relevant loans issued by banking financial institutions to indemnificatory housing projects holding the confirmation of indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate concentration. When calculating the proportion of real estate loans, banking institutions deduct “indemnificatory rental housing development loans, operating loans and purchase loans” from the balance of real estate loans. This move provides space for the subdivision and transformation of real estate enterprises, provides support for the banking industry to serve the majority of young people, and provides good policy support for the improvement of the quality of housing related loans. With the support of policies, we believe that the bank’s profit expectation is good, the valuation has more room to improve, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Market performance
The banking sector index fell 3.68% this week, weaker than the market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35%, the gem index rose 1.03%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.67%. The recommendations focus on high-quality joint-stock banks ( ‘ Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 36\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601825) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) ).
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, tightening monetary policy, increasing risk of non-performing rate, outbreak of major risks and events of default, etc.
