Key targets: recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ; Pay attention to Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , beiteri, Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
Investment perspective:
1. The decline of subsidies is superimposed on the continuous rise of raw material prices, and the product structure of automobile enterprises is adjusted. On the evening of February 23, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, issued an announcement on Euler app to clarify the recent online suspension of Euler black and white cats. It is emphasized that at present, the black and white cats just stop receiving orders and do not stop production, and Euler is actively seeking solutions. We believe that for pure electric vehicles within 10W, since the battery cost accounts for 30-40% of the whole vehicle price, the price increase has a heavy pressure on the cost of vehicle enterprises. Therefore, in the current environment, on the one hand, car enterprises adjust the sales structure to medium and high-end models with greater profit elasticity. On the other hand, PHEV models led by Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI are less affected by the battery price rise due to the small charging capacity of single battery, and the absolute cost is lower than that of pure electric vehicles of the same level, which can better adapt to the price elasticity of raw materials. We are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the midstream. Attention: Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) .
2. Lithium battery enterprises have made positive progress in favorable price, and the rhythm of upstream and downstream favorable price deserves attention. In the current environment, battery companies are making positive progress towards downstream favorable prices. However, the price of raw materials rises rapidly and is mostly adjusted monthly. The pricing mode and voice of battery companies to downstream will directly affect the timeliness of price transmission. We believe that leading companies can better absorb the pressure of upstream price rise in combination with low-cost long order inventory, technological progress and scale effect. At the same time, the advantageous bargaining power to the downstream will timely transmit the pressure of raw material price rise. Leading enterprises also smoothed price fluctuations through industrial chain layout and inventory, and further highlighted supply chain control and cost advantages. Recommended: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . From the perspective of supply and demand of the industrial chain, the supply of negative pole graphitization, diaphragm, copper foil and iron phosphate in the middle reaches of lithium battery in 2022 is relatively tight, and the lithium battery industry chain maintains a high momentum. Attention: beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
3. Under the background of continuous high price of lithium ore, the economy of lithium battery recovery is prominent. Lithium battery recycling helps to make up for the supply gap of upstream resources, especially lithium resources. Lithium battery recycling has broad market space and development prospects. Attention: Bangpu cycle ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , etc.
4. Since the second half of 2021, the progress of new technology of power battery has accelerated, and the industrialization of new technologies such as soft wrapped blade battery, 4680 large cylinder + CTC, composite collector technology (PET copper aluminum foil), silicon carbon negative electrode has accelerated. We pay attention to the improvement of subdivision pattern by new technologies, recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , and pay attention to Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , beiteri, Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) 。
Risk tips:
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Risks of changes in industrial policies and subsidies; The expansion of overseas auto enterprises is less than expected, and the competition intensifies the risk of declining profitability; Risk of technical route change.
