Market review: the auto sector performed strongly this week, led by new energy and smart cars. CITIC auto index fell 0.18% this week, outperforming the market by 1.49 percentage points, ranking 13th among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 0.12%, commercial vehicles fell 1.63%, auto parts rose 0.46%, and auto sales and services fell 1.83%; In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index rose 3.65% and the intelligent vehicle index rose 1.17%. The auto sector has continued to adjust since December 2021, with a decline of 15.3% during the period, mainly driven by the new energy vehicle and passenger vehicle sectors (down 17.6% and 20.9% respectively). Auto parts and intelligent vehicles have a strong performance and are relatively resistant to decline, down 12.3% and 9.9% respectively; The former logic is the two wheel drive of Tesla cycle and the rise of independent brands, while the latter logic is the centralized loading of high-end intelligent hardware in 2022, and the industrial chain is expected to usher in a wave of performance release.
Data tracking: the passenger Union approved and sold 40000 vehicles in the first three Sundays of February, with a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. Among them, the average daily wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger car manufacturers in the first two weeks of February was 28000, a year-on-year decrease of 20% and a month on month decrease of 49%; On the third Sunday of February, 62000 vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of 141.6% and a month on month decrease of 9% compared with the same period in January. The performance after the festival was strong. From the retail perspective, the passenger Federation retailed 26000 vehicles in the first three Sundays of February, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%. Among them, in the first two weeks of February, the retail sales of narrow passenger car market reached an average of 26000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 56% compared with the same period in January; On the third Sunday of February, the average retail sales were 47000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 67.4%, down 32% month on month compared with the same period in January. Compared with the retail sales in the hot period before the festival, it rebounded to the 70% level. After the Spring Festival, the retail sales in the market recovered better.
Ideal automobile released its 2021 financial report, and its single quarter profit turned positive for the first time. In 2021, the company will deliver 90000 ideal one, yoy is 177.4%; The revenue is 27.01 billion yuan, yoy 185.6%; The gross profit margin was 21.3%, compared with the same period + 4.9pct; The operating profit was -1.02 billion yuan, compared with -670 million yuan in the same period; The R & D expenditure was 3.29 billion yuan, yoy 199.1%. In a single quarter, 35000 vehicles were delivered in Q4, yoy 143.5%; The revenue is 10.62 billion yuan, yoy 156.1%; The gross profit margin was 22.4%, compared with the same period + 4.9%; The operating profit was 24 million yuan, which became regular for the first time in a single quarter; The R & D expenditure was 1.23 billion yuan, yoy 228.9%.
Investment suggestion: Q1 is a good time to lay out the automobile sector. Since December last year, the overall adjustment range and time length of the sector have been sufficient. The demand shown by the data in January is still strong. The impact of price rise and subsidy decline on the sales of new energy vehicles is not as large as expected. Considering the high growth of Q1 performance announced in April and the event catalysis of Shanghai International Auto Show, it is expected that the auto sector will rebound significantly in Q2. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) intelligent driving industry chain, and pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optics, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
