Power coal industry chain: the port price of power coal fell slightly this week (2.21-2.25), closing at 940 yuan / ton on the 25th daily, with a weekly decline of 6%. Overseas coal prices rose slightly in Australia and South Africa and fell slightly in Europe. The coal price of origin rose sharply in Shaanxi and fell slightly in Inner Mongolia. The annual price is 965 yuan / ton, which is lower than that of last year, but the decline continues to converge. The port inventory continues to be destocked.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: demand picked up this week, and coking coal prices rebounded sharply. The port’s main coking coal 25 daily closed at 2830 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13.20%, the price of imported coking coal increased by 5.22%, and the import price difference expanded significantly. The price of coal injection decreased slightly. On the demand side, the coke price rose 7.55% during the week, and the coke oven operating rate began to rise. Steel prices fell by 1.00% this week, and the operating rate of blast furnace rebounded. The storage of coking coal and injection coal in each link remained at a high level, but it was de converted in the week. Coke accumulation occurs.
Equity view: this week, the sector index fell by 2.11%, underperforming the market index, and most of the listed companies closed down, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) due to the significant repair of the stock price after the resumption of trading after the announcement of a new restructuring plan. The biggest disturbance factor at the industry level is the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism issued by the national development and Reform Commission on February 25. The notice redefined the trading range of 5500 long-term cooperative price of underground coal in Qinhuangdao port as 570770 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous draft, the low point is 20 yuan / ton higher, the high point is 80 yuan / ton lower, the central point is changed from 700 yuan / ton to 670 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation range is changed from 300 yuan to 200 yuan; It also defines the reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction price of coal in key areas. The reasonable range of coal price with calorific value of 5500 kcal in Shanxi is 370570 yuan / ton, 320520 yuan / ton in Shaanxi (5500 kcal), 260460 yuan / ton in Mengxi (5500 kcal) and 200300 yuan / ton in Mengdong (3500 kcal). The event was lower than the market expectation and caused some disturbance, but the impact was limited. The price of coal will rise significantly in the central price of 722 yuan in May, but the price of coal will not rise significantly in the central price of 532 yuan in May, and the price of coal will not rise significantly in the central price of 532 yuan in May. We are still optimistic about the industry. First, March and April are the start-up season, and the demand for coking coal may be boosted. At present, the data level is also gradually verified; Second, most coal listed companies increase in advance. From the perspective of valuation, the current safety margin of coal stocks is high; Third, China’s coal prices are operating at a high level, and overseas prices are still strong. The performance level is expected to be maintained this year. After the sector is wrongly killed, there is a large room for repairing undervalued stocks. In the context of steady growth, it is recommended to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and highly deterministic undervalued targets, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
