Basic conclusion
Background:
Over the past six months, the pharmaceutical sector, especially the innovation related sub sector, has continued to decline. There are three main reasons: (1) concerns about the profit space of traditional pharmaceutical enterprises in the Chinese market under the pressure of medical insurance negotiation and centralized purchase, (2) concerns about biotechnology innovation and CXO enterprises that may be affected by the supply instability of core equipment and consumables upstream of the supply chain, and (3) concerns about the success probability of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical enterprises going to sea and entering the European and American pharmaceutical market.
In our previous special report, we have analyzed the above three points from the perspective of China’s biomedical innovation Fundamentals: market concerns, poor expectations of objective fundamentals and investment opportunities in the industry (see our special topic “China’s innovative pharmaceutical enterprises usher in the first ODAC, internationalization is imminent”).
This time, we will start from the growth track of overseas pharmaceutical enterprises to see how the leaders of various sectors in various countries have grown on the innovation road that has been confirmed to be through in the world. In this article, we start with yanyeyi, Japan, who is at the forefront of the research and development of small molecules against covid-19 virus in the world, look at the process of its establishment, development and re emergence of covid-19, and explore the characteristics of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises, so as to provide reference strategies for the investment of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises in China.
Yanye Yi, a century old pharmaceutical enterprise driven by original research, is the leader of anti-virus in Japan, and innovation drives pulse breakthrough.
R & D of the strongest influenza drugs in 20 years: (1) yanyeyi is an original research driven pharmaceutical enterprise that is good at anti infection, central nervous system diseases and other fields; The income from original drug research accounts for more than 50%. (2) In 2018, 20 years after the launch of Tamiflu, the company launched the world’s heavyweight influenza drug xofluza. One tablet can be equivalent to the standard treatment of 10 tablets of Tamiflu and can last for 10 days.
Covid-19 small molecule oral drug may catch up from behind and does not need the listing application of ritonavir’s 3clpro inhibitor in Japan. Covid-19 epidemic situation fluctuates with variants. The company’s 3clpro inhibitor and small molecule oral drug s-217622 have lower toxicity than similar paxlovid and do not need the combination of ritonavir. On February 25, 2022, based on its phase 2B clinical data of 428 people, the virus titer of covid-19 patients decreased significantly. The company has submitted a conditional approval application to PMDA and is expected to start commercialization in Japan in advance. Meanwhile, yanye official website announced that it would accelerate the ongoing phase 3 study for patients with mild / moderate symptoms (number of target subjects: 1260) and phase 2B / 3 part of the study for patients with asymptomatic / only mild symptoms (number of target subjects: 300 to 600).
Focus on research and development, good layout and seize opportunities. Yanyeyi once developed heavy products such as Crestor and xofloza, but his income decreased due to the decline of sales of old products and the slow launch of new products. At present, in addition to covid-19 products, the company also has 8 core products under research. At the same time, it strengthens overseas cooperation and widens profit channels. In the covid-19 epidemic, covid-19 products are comprehensively distributed, and the platform advantages and R & D experience are used to quickly put into R & D. small molecule drugs are expected to be supplied in advance.
Investment strategy: we believe that innovation is necessary, and it is certain that the life cycle of innovative drugs will be shortened. Therefore, to internationalize innovation strength, we also need rich and rapid transformation of pipelines. Therefore, we believe that pharmaceutical enterprises that can become brilliant on the road of innovation in the future must be the subject of international innovation and R & D ability, two-way ability of introduction and internationalization, and unique barriers to maintain profit space.
Target of attention: Kingsley biology, Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) , Baiji Shenzhou, Cinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) etc.
Risk tips
The listing progress of s-217622 products is less than expected; Product marketing is not as expected; The clinical results of core products were less than expected; Increased market competition and other risks
