Epidemic tracking update
The global epidemic tends to ease. The number of new cases in the world continued to decline this week. Except for the lagging growth of mortality in the United States, the mortality rate in most countries remained within 1%.
New cases rise in Hong Kong. On February 27, more than 26000 new cases were reported in Hong Kong, with a mortality rate of more than 7%. At the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, it was said that the current epidemic situation in Hong Kong is in a period of rapid spread and accelerated rise.
Covid-19 drug research and development continued to progress. On February 25, yanye announced that he had completed the phase 2B primary endpoint data analysis of covid-19 small molecule oral drug s-217622 and submitted an application for production and sales license in Japan. S-217622 significantly reduced the virus titer in the phase 2B clinic of 428 patients, but failed to significantly improve the comprehensive score of 12 symptoms. Yanye will continue to submit further data analysis and accelerate the completion of phase 3 clinical (including 1260 mild to moderate patients and Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) asymptomatic / mild symptomatic infections).
Zhou viewpoint update
Accelerate pharmaceutical innovation again and look forward to the direction of pharmaceutical innovation. This week, CDE released the working procedure of the drug review center for accelerating the review of innovative drug listing application (Trial) (Draft for comments), which further encourages the research and creation of new drugs, timely summarizes the experience of the emergency review of transformation and anti epidemic, speeds up the review of innovative drugs included in the breakthrough therapeutic drug procedure, and meets the needs of clinical medication. This week, 14 innovative drugs were approved for clinical trials for the first time, and no innovative drugs were approved for listing for the first time. On February 28, the legendary bcmacar-t product cilta cel will welcome FDA’s PDUFA. Continue to be optimistic about the direction of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation, including differentiated innovation, innovative manufacturing and innovative going to sea.
CXO sector market sentiment gradually warmed up, optimistic about the first quarter of the annual report in March. On February 24, the supply chain and purchase of American products act was implemented. The short-term noise does not change the long-term positive trend, and the negative factors are gradually cleared away. The market sentiment optimistic about the excessive pessimism in the early stage is further warmed up with the release of 2021 annual report and 2022q1 high growth performance (including the consolidation of high performance growth expectations). In the long run, as a water seller of pharmaceutical innovation, CXO sector has high growth and high certainty, and should enjoy a certain valuation premium. After the early adjustment of the sector, the current valuation has entered the bottom range, and the leading configuration has high cost performance.
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream API sector of the industrial chain and the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain: ① the API sector continues to promote the capacity construction of intermediates and APIs, preparations and cdmo projects. Under the background of the continuous support of the 14th five year plan for pharmaceutical industry development for API, the performance of relevant enterprises is expected to improve steadily, and the profitability is expected to improve continuously in 2022 (the price of upstream raw materials, exchange rate and freight rise in 2021, and the profit margin fluctuates). ② Focus on the investment opportunities in the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including subdivided fields such as equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , kingship biotechnology, Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) , etc.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
