Industry core view:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index rose 2.39%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.67% in the same period. The basic chemical industry index outperformed the market by 4.06 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index rose 0.16%, outperforming the market by 1.83 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Baoding Lucky Innovative Materials Co.Ltd(300446) (47.41%), Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) (36.85%), Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) (29.63%), Guofeng new material (20.88%) and Sanwei Holding Group Co.Ltd(603033) (20.40%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (- 16.30%), Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) (- 13.43%), Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) (- 9.25%), Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) (- 9.16%), Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) (- 8.87%).
Key investment points:
International crude oil: last week, the international crude oil price fluctuated upward in a wide range. During the week, Ukraine and Russia officially launched the conflict and once broke through the $100 / barrel mark. The two cities reached a new high of $100.54/barrel since July 30, 2014 and a new high of $102.26/barrel since September 5, 2014. As of the closing on February 25, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were US $91.59/barrel and US $97.93/barrel respectively, up 0.57% and 4.69% month on month on the 7th, respectively. Russia is the world's major crude oil exporter and a major member of OPEC +. It is the main source of crude oil in Europe and other countries and regions. Under the current situation of increasing crude oil supply in Ukraine, the fear of increasing crude oil supply by 400000 barrels in the international market has been exacerbated. However, at present, on the one hand, the United States is planning to jointly release its strategic crude oil reserves with other countries; On the other hand, the US sanctions against Russia do not include crude oil supply, so the short-term rise in oil prices is limited. It is expected that the subsequent international crude oil prices will remain high and volatile.
Pure MDI: last week, the rise of China's pure MDI continued. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the mainstream price of China's pure MDI was 23800 yuan / ton on February 25, up 2.59% month on month on the 7th Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has also announced the listing price of pure MDI in March, which is 26800 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with February. Affected by the rise of crude oil, the high price support of aniline at the raw material end is strong; On the supply side, the short-term production of some Chinese units is limited, resulting in the tightening of on-site supply circulation, the normal commencement of overseas units and sufficient supply; Although the operating rate of spandex at the downstream of the demand side has increased, it is still dominated by the consumption of early-stage inventory, and the demand for pure MDI is limited. It is expected that the pure MDI market will continue to operate at a high level in the future when the guidance price is high.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation in some parts of China on enterprise operation, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of chemical product price.
