Report guide
Tesla‘s Shanghai plant will expand production and focus on the core supply chain. The industrialization of integrated die casting has accelerated, and the industry is in the early stage of outbreak. We pay attention to core suppliers.
Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell 0.24%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.67% in the same period, and the auto industry was 1.43 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the growth rate of the automobile industry last week ranked 14th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, with the overall performance in the upper reaches. The new energy vehicle index rose 2.70%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger cars / auto parts / commercial passenger cars / Automotive Services / commercial cargo vehicles this week were – 1.58% / 0.67% / – 0.86% / – 1.3% / – 2.25% respectively.
Market hot spot
Ideal automobile announced its performance in 2021, Q4 revenue exceeded 10 billion, and the gross profit margin of automobile reached 22.3%. In 2021q4, the ideal automobile revenue is 10.62 billion yuan, yoy156 million yuan 1%，QOQ36. 6%, including auto sales revenue of 10.38 billion yuan and yoy155 million yuan 7%，QOQ40. 5%, matching the sales volume of 21q4, the ideal sales volume of 21q4 is 35221, yoy143 5%，QOQ40. 2%。 The gross profit margin of 21q4 automobile business reached 22.3%, increased by 1.3pct month on month compared with Q3, reaching a record high, and the economies of scale of production and sales showed. On the premise of a substantial increase in R & D investment, 21q4 made a profit of 300 million yuan. The company expects the delivery volume of 22q1 to be about 3 Shenzhen Sed Industry Co.Ltd(000032) 000 vehicles, and the total revenue is expected to be about 8.84-9.43 billion yuan.
Xiaopeng P5 ushered in the first public beta of large version Ota. On February 23, Xiaopeng automobile released the news: Xiaopeng P5 ushered in the first public test of large version Ota. The version number of this large version Ota is xmart OS 3.1.0. This OTA comprehensive upgrade mainly includes: 1) cross floor memory parking online; 2) Memory routes can be shared; 3) During parking, you can search along the way and park in an empty parking space.
This week’s view: Tesla Shanghai will expand its production and accelerate the industrialization of integrated die casting
Recently, Tesla Shanghai plans to expand its parts production capacity. We believe that the investment opportunities of Tesla‘s main line include both the core supply chain and the new industrial trends led by Tesla, which focuses on integrated die casting. This year, more auto enterprises will confirm to follow up the process.
Tesla to expand production. According to the EIA report of the first phase of Tesla super factory project (phase I) – parts production process improvement project (capacity adjustment), Tesla plans to increase the parts production capacity by increasing production workshops, increasing the number of workers and improving the equipment operation rate. The production capacity is expected to reach 1 million units in 2022. According to Reuters, Tesla plans to build another new plant in Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) as soon as next month, increasing the annual production capacity of Shanghai to 2 million vehicles. Tesla will deliver 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, and Tesla’s four major global factories will expand production simultaneously in 2022, and the global sales volume is expected to reach 1.8-2 million vehicles. The core supply chain value is prominent, with Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , focusing on Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) . The industrialization of integrated die casting has accelerated. At present, the integrated die casting industry is in the early stage of outbreak. Due to the advantages of cost reduction (streamlining the production process chain), lightweight and rapid improvement of production efficiency, the industry is setting off an integrated die casting process revolution under the guidance of Tesla. According to Tesla’s plan, the application scope of body integration will penetrate from the rear seat sector to the front body and chassis battery tray. The value of a single car can be seen as at least 8000 yuan. The market prospect is broad, and attention is paid to the investment opportunity of integrated die-casting sector. In November 2021, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) 6000t die-casting unit was put off the production line, in January 2022, Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) integrated backseat sector was put off the production line, this week, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) integrated backseat sector was put off the production line, and the industrialization of integrated die-casting was accelerated. It is recommended to focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , focusing on Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be 8-10%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine manufacturers, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The model iteration speed in the era of electric intelligence will accelerate, which will greatly improve the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The fixed zero adjustment relationship in the past is expected to be broken, and the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, At the same time, the acceleration of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends. We are optimistic about the rise of domestic and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four sub areas: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, cockpit intelligence and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc, Focus on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
